Friday saw the fear factor at work big time. No, it wasn’t a Friday the 13th, but it sure felt like it as a chain of events – the effects of which are not likely to disappear any time soon – clobbered the market, driving the Dow down a wicked 213 points.

Those events – growing worries about Iran’s stubborn nuclear ambitions, a new terrorist threat against America from Osama bin Laden, and unrest in oil-rich Nigeria – all pushed per barrel oil prices to more than $68, within a shade of their all-time high of about $70.

To some, these events raise the specter of new market dangers. One is energy expert Alan Gaines, who believes these worrisome developments signal that oil and gas prices will rise sharply over the next six months.

His forecasts are shocking. Within six months, he says, “We’ll see $80 a barrel oil and $4 to $5 per gallon at the gas pump.” The fact is, he says, we’re now in a world of $60 to $100 a barrel oil, with a clear built-in $15 a barrel premium. Under-$50-a-barrel-oil, Mr. Gaines believes, “is now history.”

A former institutional energy analyst and an adviser to corporate raider Carl Icahn in his hostile takeover bids for Texaco, Phillips Petroleum, and Marathon Oil, Mr. Gaines is presently CEO and chairman of Dune Energy, a small, publicly owned energy company that’s 78% owned by Itera Holdings, Russia’s second-biggest gas producer.

As far as energy shares go, Mr. Gaines, who is no stranger to this column because of his uncanny ability to forecast the direction of oil and gas prices, believes the latest bevy of international worries only reinforces the need to own energy stocks. He’s putting his money where his mouth is, having recently gone on a mini buying binge, adding to energy positions in his personal high-seven-figure stock portfolio.

Interestingly, a number of the stocks he bought – among them Chesapeake Energy, Marathon Oil, Anadarko Petroleum, EOG Resources, and Ranger Resources – have gone through the roof in recent years, which would seem to raise some serious questions about the validity of his action.

That’s not the way Mr. Gaines sees it, though, even though energy stocks, as a group, shot up 29.1% last year after a 28.8% jump in 2004.

“Iran is the wild card,” he says. Taking note of the threat by Iran, the world’s fourth-largest oil producer (at 2.5 million barrels a day), to scrap its oil exports if sanctions are imposed over its refusal to ditch its nuclear activities, plus the threat of stepped-up attacks from Al Qaeda, Mr. Gaines believes these implied risks in themselves mean higher oil prices. Even if Iran were to back off, oil prices will still go up because of the implied threat, he says.

The terrorism threat aside, which implies supply disruptions, Mr. Gaines cites a number of other reasons that energy prices are headed higher. Chief among them: a strong economy and significant demand from China and India. He also notes America experienced its warmest November in 11 years, suggesting to him the advent of colder weather is likely to drive gas prices up a quick 20%, given the recent decline in natural gas prices.

As for the recent expansion of his energy stock portfolio, Mr. Gaines explains that part of his rationale for the increased purchases is his belief that “many energy stocks remain significantly undervalued despite their big gains.” The market, he says, isn’t reflecting the current price of oil, which closed Friday at roughly $68 a barrel. Rather, he says, it’s pricing oil as though it were at $50 a barrel, “and I don’t think we’re going that low.”

Other reasons he gives for fattening his stakes in the five energy stocks mentioned above include their significant reserves and his belief that they’re undervalued on their assets and statistically inexpensive based on their cashflow multiples.

Likewise, he expects some energy giants, such as ChevronTexaco, ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, and British Petroleum, to try to increase their reserves through domestic acquisitions. He believes four of the five companies (excluding Chesapeake Energy) represent logical takeover targets. But barring any takeovers, he still thinks all five have the potential for returns of 20% to 25% over the next 12 months.