After being stung by wicked drops in the Dow Jones Industrial Average — nearly 3,000 points in the past 12 months, including an abysmal showing in the first half of the year — Wall Street pros are expecting the arrival of a market rally. They are absolutely right to do so: Stocks simply don’t go down forever. The key question about any rebound, though, is its staying power.

“There is no staying power right now,” a Los Angeles money manager, Arnold Silver, says. “There are too many obstacles and too many unknowns. Any rebound here is nothing more than a momentary thrill. Jumping into any rally at this point is pretty much tantamount to drinking a glass of wine spiked with arsenic or cyanide. It’s a good way to get killed.”

The head of A. Silver Associates cites a bevy of widely acknowledged worries to make his case that any rally is likely to be short-lived. There is the nonstop rise in the price of oil; the threat of billions of dollars more in banking and brokerage write-downs; rising inflation and a weakening economy; a rapidly growing number of layoffs, and an almost certain sharp slowdown in consumer spending.

“I’d be leery as hell about getting sucked into any rally, because it’s a sucker’s trap for buyers, an invitation to more losses,” Mr. Silver says.

That’s basically the admonition from a number of worried market pros amid heightened expectation that a spirited rally — perhaps 500 to 600 points in the Dow — is apt to kick off soon.

The major indices have taken a shellacking this year, with the Dow leading the first-half tumble with a 14% loss, followed by a 13.5% Nasdaq drop, and a 12.8% decline in the S&P 500.

“A bounce is surely overdue, but the market is doing nothing to suggest it can carve out a bottom here,” Mark Leibovit, the head of VRTrader.com, an online market service, says. “There is no catalyst on the horizon to fuel a sustained rally.” He says he believes the Dow, which closed Thursday at 11,258.54, could rebound to 11,725 because the bulls look like they’re ready to make a stand.

The unanswered question, Mr. Leibovit says, is at what level the market will bounce. His latest work, he tells me, continues to show a “sell signal” for stocks, with the Dow vulnerable to a break below 10,000. “We expect more angst in equities,” he says.

A money manager in London and a principal of Stahler Dearborn Ltd., Raymond Stahler, observes that “an intelligent, nonemotional examination of the chief problems facing Wall Street — many of which are worsening — should send a clear signal to any thinking investor that any near-term rally will have a short life.”

Aside from the oft-mentioned concerns, “the Federal Reserve is recklessly heightening market risks,” he says. “Its failure to address itself to the dangers of rising inflation will continue to rip the dollar and diminish global confidence in the American market.”

The latest thinking of veteran investment adviser Richard Russell, who is normally a bear but turned prematurely bullish last year, also suggests investors would be well-advised to be cautious of any imminent rebound. In fact, based on his latest words, the editor of the Dow Theory Letters looks like he may be ready to don his bearish garb again.

“With the Dow around its lowest level since August of 2006 and with the transports finally melting, the market apparently is fated to go lower,” he told clients via e-mail Thursday. “I don’t think 98% of investors, including professionals, have any idea how fragile the market is or how close the price structure is to a dramatic collapse.” The places to be in, he says, are cash (T-bills) and gold.

The general view among the worrywarts is that full-scale capitulation is needed before the market can regain solid footing. As Mr.Silver put it: “You need a blowoff, maybe another 5% decline, in a wave of panic selling when investors finally throw in the towel. Maybe then Wall Street can shout hooray and say it’s finally over.”

He may be right, but if you can believe Mr. Leibovit, who has been red-hot in calling market moves, that additional 5% decline won’t do it. His outlook of a drop below 10,000 — actually, he sees the possibility of 9,800 — is equivalent to a further loss of more than 14%. In either case, the bottom line is more pain ahead.

The way I figure it, Hannah Franklin, an investor who lives at Sutton Place, may be closest to the truth. “If you live long enough,” she says, “the market always comes back.”

dandordan@aol.com