It’s a “foregone conclusion” that Representative Elizabeth Cheney will lose her primary election next month, a pollster tells the  Casper, Wyoming Star-Tribune. “The big story is Liz Cheney is going to get beat,” Bradley Coker says. 

Ms. Cheney, who has emerged as a leading critic of President Trump despite representing a state where he won 70 percent of the popular vote in 2020, could see a narrow path to victory, the Star-Tribune reports. That would depend on Democratic and independent voters crossing over and supporting Ms. Cheney in the primary. It may not be enough, polls show.

New polling, conducted for the Star-Tribune by Mr. Coker’s firm, Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy, shows Mr. Trump’s pick for Ms. Cheney’s seat, Harriet Hageman, running far ahead of the incumbent.

The lawyer and former Republican National Committee member leads Ms. Cheney by 22 points — 52 percent to 30 percent, according to the poll of 1,100 likely voters conducted between July 7 and July 11.

This is only the most recent polling that shows Ms. Cheney behind Ms. Hageman. Polling conducted in May by a group that opposes Ms. Cheney’s re-election showed her behind by 30 points.

Ms. Cheney’s polling numbers largely stem from her opposition to Mr. Trump. That included her vote to impeach him in 2021 over his role in the events of January 6 that year, and her subsequent service on the House committee investigating the attack on the Capitol.  

In 2020, Ms. Cheney won re-election with 69 percent of the vote in her district. Her popularity declined following her criticism of Mr. Trump. The Wyoming Republican Party in January voted to stop recognizing Ms. Cheney as a member, and in February it voted to censure her.

The July polling shows Wyoming voters are also dissatisfied with the job that Ms. Cheney is doing in the House, with 27 percent of voters approving, 66 percent disapproving, and 7 percent unsure.

More than half of those polled said that they were less likely to support Ms. Cheney because of her role on the House January 6 committee.

A majority of voters — 61 percent — say her work on the committee has affected her ability to “deal with the important Wyoming issues.”

While Mr. Trump and his influence over the voting base is a factor, Mr. Coker tells the Star-Tribune says that isn’t the deciding factor. He instead describes the race as a referendum on Ms. Cheney.

“Anybody who’s credible, who ran to the right of Liz Cheney would probably win this race — with or without Donald Trump,” he said.

One glimmer of hope for Ms. Cheney is that some Democratic and independent voters are intending to register as Republicans using Wyoming’s same-day party-affiliation changes, the Star-Tribune reports. 

Ms. Cheney enjoys a 53 percent job approval rating among Democrats in the state as well as a 29 percent approval rating among independents, many of whom approve of her opposition to Mr. Trump.

Although the crossover votes could boost Ms. Cheney in the August primary, Mr. Coker argues that it’s likely not enough.

“Once a politician gets to a certain point, there’s a point of no return,” he told the Star-Tribune.