China’s Military Machine Seen Getting More Aggressive as American Tariffs Rise

The prospect of stiff tariffs on imports from all of America’s East Asian allies is raising fears across the region of armed conflict with China, the main target of President Trump’s tariff increases. From the Philippines to Taiwan, to South Korea and Japan, China is tightening its grip on island bases, bullying its American-backed foes, and backing up its aggressive tactics with ever more planes and ships. Fueling the fears, China is reportedly building a vast central military complex southwest of Beijing that’s 10 times the size of the Pentagon. “This fortress only serves one purpose, which is to act as a doomsday bunker for China’s increasingly sophisticated and capable military,” Australia’s Financial Review says. The project “signals Beijing’s intent to build not only a world-class conventional force but also an advanced nuclear warfighting capability,” the Financial Times quotes a former China analyst at the CIA, Dennis Wilder, as saying.The complex might appear as a sitting duck for nuclear attack, but the FT reports it features “hardened bunkers to protect Chinese military leaders during any conflict — including potentially a nuclear war.” President Xi, who’s all-powerful as chairman of the military commission as well as general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, could move around with his aides through underground passageways impervious to bunker-busting bombs, including nukes. As of now Chinese aggression threatens the smaller states on its periphery, all of which count on America for security — and the promise to come to their rescue. Mr. Trump, focusing on China for economic retaliation, suggests he’s not willing to invest more in defense of allies otherwise unable to stand up to the Chinese.The co-chairman of Focus on the Global South at Bangkok, Walden Bellow, warns in the South China Morning Post of Mr. Trump shifting “from the liberal internationalist perspective of defending US interests everywhere” to “retrenching into the Americas.”As tariffs go up, China’s military machine is seen as getting more aggressive — while America’s Indo-Pacific defenses stay the same or even weaken. The newly appointed deputy assistant secretary of defense for South and Southeast Asia, John Byers, espouses a soft line, calling for “a future of mutually assured production rather than mutually assured destruction” with China. Formerly with the Charles Koch Foundation, Mr. Byers “believes that the U.S. could shift to deterrence in the event of a Chinese act of aggression, by empowering U.S. allies to defend themselves,” according to the conservative National Review.To Filipinos, that outlook seems like a rationalization for retreating from the promises America has offered the Philippines’s president, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., in the form of American military gear, new bases, and, most obviously, frequent American patrols by the Air Force and Navy, above and on the South China Sea, which China claims as its territory. Mr. Marcos spoke sarcastically of China’s demands for removal of the Typhon missiles his American benefactor has provided. “Let’s make a deal with China,” he said. “Stop claiming our territory, stop harassing our fishermen and let them have a living, stop ramming our boats, stop water-cannoning our people, stop firing lasers at us and stop your aggressive and coercive behavior, and we’ll return the Typhoon missiles.”China, of course, is not willing to give up its claims to the South China Sea, where it has built three runways on small island clusters and is basing warplanes and ships. Nor is China going to stop sending planes and ships around the independent island province of Taiwan, which President Biden pledged to defend. While Mr. Xi is vowing to recover the island, Mr. Trump has not renewed what Mr. Biden repeatedly said was a “commitment” to Taiwan.Similarly, the Voice of America reported, “U.S. experts on the Korean Peninsula predict that there is a good chance that the Trump administration will consider reducing the number of U.S. troops stationed in Korea and readjusting their roles.” According to VOA, “They analyzed that the focus will be on the possibility of conflict with China.”Beside retaliating for America’s elevated tariffs by increasing its own tariffs, China is also challenging the supremacy of Japan, potentially the most powerful country in the region.“The Chinese military has sent ships and planes into Japanese waters and airspace while engaging in high-profile exercises around Japan with Russia,” the Japan Times reported, raising the stakes in tandem with rising tariffs._____________Correction: Douglas Wilder is the last name of a former CIA analyst. His last name was misspelled in an earlier version.

China’s Military Machine Seen Getting More Aggressive as American Tariffs Rise

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