Confounding Conventional Wisdom, Polls Find Trump Stronger Than Ever

President Trump’s foes are hopeful that White House chaos will rid them of this turbulent president. So far, though, Americans are happier than ever that Mr. Trump’s circus is in town — and many welcome the very disruptions that make Washington insiders queasy. “The true New Yorker,” John Updike said, “secretly believes that people living anywhere else have to be, in some sense, kidding.” On social media, many MAGA foes are just as convinced that the 77.3 million people who voted for Mr. Trump are playing some electoral practical joke.When asked if they voted for the latest policy outraging the political class, Mr. Trump’s supporters always say yes. On Tuesday, the host of CNN’s “Margins of Error,” Harry Enten, did “a little bit of reality check” for those clinging to this belief that Mr. Trump is losing support and on the eve of self-destruction.“All we talk about,” Mr. Enten said, “is how unpopular Donald Trump is. But in reality, he’s basically more popular than he was at any point in term number one” or “when he won election back in November of 2024.” Mr. Trump’s net favorable, according to Mr. Enten’s polling aggregator, is minus-four points.That minus-four is a three-point improvement over November 2024 and six points better than March 2017. Politicians, like fish, tend to smell worse the longer they hang around; Mr. Trump is swimming against the tide.Mr. Enten noted that, “historically speaking,” Mr. Trump has had his numbers underestimated.” So it’s “important to compare him to himself.” He “is more towards the ceiling than he is towards the floor.” Mr. Enten offered another metaphor later, as if knowing that the facts would not compute for many viewers, blocked by partisan firewalls. Mr. Trump, Mr. Enten said, is “closer to the apex than he is to the bottom of the trough.” He offered “a metric that might get an understanding of how popular” the president “may actually be.” The chunk of the country saying that it’s “on the right track,” he said, “is “actually a very high percentage” in recent history.According to polling by Marist, Mr. Enten said, “45 percent say that we’re on the correct track,” their second-highest number since 2009. NBC’s 44 percent is their highest metric since 2004. “The bottom line is the percentage of Americans who say we’re on the right track is through the roof.” The Rasmussen pollster, Mark Mitchell, tweeted to Mr. Enten that they had the number “at 48 percent three weeks ago.”When the “right track” number reaches 42 percent, Mr. Enten said, “the incumbent party is re-elected,” and Mr. Trump is clearing that bar. By comparison, “only about 27 to 28 percent” judged American “on the right track” when Democrats lost in November.Republicans could benefit from Mr. Trump’s strengths in next year’s midterms based on CNN’s generic congressional ballot. When Democrats won in 2020 and 2022, Mr. Enten said, they were up five and tied respectively. In 2024, when Republicans held control in the House and won the Senate, they were at plus one.The generic ballot now, Mr. Enten said, “looks a lot more like 2022 or 2024 when the Republicans won control of Congress. … A lot of folks say the country is on the right track, and the generic congressional looks a heck of a lot more like when Republicans win than when Democrats win.”It’s hard for detractors to accept that Mr. Trump is stronger than ever after a decade of withering attacks. Yet Republicans, as Mr. Enten put it, “are still in the catbird seat,” and enjoying Mr. Trump’s return to the big top. They delight in seeing him shake the foundations of a government they view as aloof, wasteful, and bloated.Mr. Trump’s opponents have until the midterms to find performers who can compete in Washington’s three-ring circus. To have a chance, candidates will need to view the polls as they are, not as they wish them to be — and accept that those supporting the incumbent ringmaster’s policies are not, in any sense, kidding.

Confounding Conventional Wisdom, Polls Find Trump Stronger Than Ever

Confounding Conventional Wisdom, Polls Find Trump Stronger Than Ever

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