Cook Political Report Predicts That There Will Be Only Four True ‘Toss-Up’ States at the Presidential Level

The Cook Political Report’s 2024 presidential ratings are out, and the handicapper is predicting a relatively small field of true toss-up states in 2024.“The race for the 2024 presidential contest begins on a very narrow playing field, with just four states and their 56 Electoral College votes considered Toss Ups: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia,” a Cook Political Report editor, Amy Walter, said of the competition.The editors explain that the large number of suburban, moderate, and Latino voters across these states is what makes them competitive in a race that is lining up to be a rematch of 2020. They also include third-party voters, which are prevalent in Arizona, as a potential wildcard.Of the true toss-up states, Pennsylvania has the largest delegation to the Electoral College, with 19 electors. Georgia is second with 16, while Arizona has 11 and Wisconsin 10.Other competitive states this cycle include Nevada, with nine electors; North Carolina, with 16; and Michigan, with 15. In the report’s assessment, these states are less competitive than the top four picks.The editors of the Cook Political Report write that Nevada and North Carolina are mirror images of each other electorally, with Democrats attempting and failing to win North Carolina in recent years and Republicans trying and failing to win Nevada.A Republican has not won Nevada at the presidential level since 2004. In North Carolina, Democrats have not carried the state on the presidential level since 2008.“North Carolina is to Democrats what Nevada is to Republicans: tantalizingly competitive, but still just out of reach,” Ms. Walter writes.Despite this electoral history, Democrats are eyeing North Carolina as an electoral target in 2024, according to a report by USA Today. The state’s Democratic governor, Roy Cooper, thinks Mr. Biden can take it. “There’s no question he can win North Carolina,” Mr. Cooper said. “A strong majority of people in North Carolina do not want restrictive bans on abortion.”Aside from attempts to flip states in which the other party has an advantage, two states in particular can expect to be the center of political attention in 2024, being both competitive on the presidential level and having high-profile Senate races — Nevada and Arizona.In Nevada, Senator Rosen, a Democrat, will be defending her seat. In Arizona, a potential three-way race is shaping up involving the leading Democrat, Congressman Ruben Gallego, a Republican nominee, and Senator Sinema.Another question raised by the first round of presidential ratings from the Cook Political Report is what Democrats are planning to do in Florida.A one-time decisive swing state, Florida is currently rated as a likely Republican, though the editors note that it “could move to Solid Republican if Democrats do ultimately decide to bypass spending much time or money in the Sunshine State.”In terms of overall projection, the Cook Political Report gives Republicans the advantage in states accounting for 235 electors and Democrats the advantage for states accounting for 247 electors, a similar projection to other handicappers such as 270 To Win, which gives Republicans a baseline of 235 electors and Democrats a baseline of 241 electors.Ahead of the 2020 presidential election, the Cook Political Report gave Mr. Biden an advantage in states representing 290 electoral votes and Mr. Trump the advantage in states representing 125 electoral votes.In the final tally, Mr. Biden defeated Mr. Trump by about four points in the popular vote and with 306 electors in the Electoral College to Mr. Trump’s 232 electors.

Cook Political Report Predicts That There Will Be Only Four True ‘Toss-Up’ States at the Presidential Level

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