President Putin’s war on Ukraine will reshape the arc of President Biden’s presidency, and for the 46th president that might not be such a bad thing. 

When Russian tanks rolled across the Ukrainian border and missiles started lighting up the night sky over Ukraine, Mr. Biden’s political fortunes were at a perilously low ebb, with no easy strategies for a pivot. 

Despite the distinct possibility that the Biden administration might witness the fall of both Kabul and Kiev, preliminary polling has begin to indicate that Mr. Biden’s fortunes are gaining some buoyancy.

The question of how substantial and enduring those gains prove to be is set to determine America’s political climate just months before the midterm elections.  

While no one is hailing a Lazarus-like resurrection in popularity, a path forward from an initial year in office largely defined by disappointment would offer a precious opportunity to reset the narrative of a presidency that has failed to deliver on its early promise.  

The best news for the White House arrived via a Marist poll that saw Americans’ approval of Mr. Biden’s handling of Ukraine spiked to 52 percent from 34 percent in the immediate aftermath of the invasion, and his overall approval rating rose to 47 percent from 39 percent in the days of his State of the Union Address. 

As more numbers roll in, though, that rosy picture increasingly looks like a mirage. A recent Yahoo News/YouGov poll found a five percentage point gain in how Americans view the president’s handling of the crisis from its inception, with that margin rising to 12 percent among independents. However, even with that 5 percent boost, just 39 percent of Americans approve of how Mr. Biden is handling the crisis. 

Regardless of how Americans are evaluating the president’s performance in regard to the Ukraine front, the needle does not seem to be budging on their holistic assessment of him.   

Harry Enten of CNN tracks a rise to 42 percent from 40 percent in overall approval rating across a range of polls conducted before and after the Russian invasion. The Yahoo News/YouGov poll finds his approval/disapproval ratings of 41 percent and 53 percent unchanged over the last two weeks. 

In assessing why Mr. Biden does not seem to be reaping enormous gains from what pollsters call the “rally ’round the flag effect,” Nathaniel Rakich of 538.com hypothesizes that the twin realities that no American troops are involved and that Mr. Biden has not been immune from public criticism have both served to ground any potential polling bounce.   

Whatever the size of Mr. Biden’s polling bump, the first major European land war in eight decades has captured the attention of the American public. A Yahoo News/YouGov poll from the end of February found that 86 percent of respondents asserted that the situation in Russia and Ukraine was “very or somewhat important.”

Unfortunately for the White House, a new ABC/Ipsos poll disclosed that 58 percent of respondents disapprove of how his administration is handling the economy, the highest in a year. 

The true drag on Mr. Biden’s popularity has more to do with American pocketbooks than Mr. Putin.