Just as Republicans at the national level have come to learn regarding the abortion issue, Democrats in New York state are learning that policy decisions have political consequences, as polls there show the party’s prospects dimming heading into next year’s election.

The Democrats’ zeal to try to curtail climate change at any cost and their embrace of more liberal immigration policies than their GOP counterparts are proving to be almost as unpopular as the Republicans’ hardline position on abortion. A new poll by the Siena College Research Institute has Governor Hochul’s approval rating at an all-time low for the pollster and support for President Biden underwater in the traditionally deep blue state.

The poll suggests that fewer than 50 percent of New Yorkers would vote for Mr. Biden in a head-to-head match with President Trump. While Mr. Biden is leading the current GOP frontrunner 47 percent to 34 percent, that 13-point bulge is the lowest in recent memory for a Democratic presidential candidate in the state, and down from the 25-point lead he enjoyed through most of the 2020 campaign.

“Trump continues to have support from three-quarters of Republicans and Biden from three-quarters of Democrats, however, independents side with Trump by nine points,” a Siena College pollster, Steven Greenberg, said. “For the first time in a Siena College poll, more New Yorkers now view Biden unfavorably, 50%, than view him favorably, 46%.”

In a warning sign to Democrats on the national stage, a prime driver of the dissatisfaction is the Democrats’ handling of the immigration crisis that has engulfed New York City and is spreading to other parts of the state. The poll found that huge majorities of voters — Democrat and Republican, upstate and urban dwellers alike — view the problem as a serious one for the state.

“More than three-quarters of Republicans and 60% of independents say New Yorkers have done enough and must now slow the flow of migrants to the state,” Mr. Greenberg said. “Voters disapprove of the job that Hochul is doing to address the influx 51-35%. They disapprove of the job Mayor Eric Adams is doing 47-31%. And they disapprove of the job the Biden Administration is doing 59-34%.”

The poll of 803 registered voters conducted between August 13 and 16 also shows that New Yorkers have mixed feelings about the policies Ms. Hochul has introduced to try to curtail climate change. Among all voters, 46 percent approve of those policies and 39 disapprove. They are, though, only popular among Democrats. Republicans disapprove of them by a 45-point margin and independents by a 15-point margin.

A more significant gap in the polling occurs when a voter’s region is taken into account. More voters upstate and in the New York City suburbs are down on the governor’s climate agenda than are residents of the city itself, 58 percent of whom support her efforts and 38 percent of whom disapprove. Among voters in the suburbs, 47 disapprove, and 43 percent of upstate residents disapprove.

The different attitudes may be a matter of voters’ finances. New York has set some of the country’s most aggressive targets for shifting its energy production away from fossil fuels and toward renewables such as wind and solar, and the costs of those goals are already showing up in upstate residents’ utility bills.

A recent report by the state Public Service Commission estimated that nearly 10 percent of upstate New Yorkers’ utility bills are now going to pay for renewable energy projects mandated by Ms. Hochul and her allies at Albany. For residents of New York City, the bill was less than half that. And the costs of those programs are only going up — New York utility customers are already on the hook for as much as $44 billion in new green energy projects in the coming years and the total costs of the initiatives could stretch into the hundreds of billions when all is said and done.

The cost of New York’s transition away from fossil fuels — described as “extraordinary” by some state utility officials — is shaping up to be political liability for Democrats in the state, and potentially across the country as the Biden administration continues to lean into the issue at the national level. The benefits, if any, from the policies for people in New York are going to be “very small, very indirect, and a long time in the future,” a fellow at the conservative Empire Policy Institute, James Hanley, tells the Sun.

“This could become a real problem for upstate Democrats,” Mr. Hanley says. “People generally support action on climate change in the abstract, but when you ask them if they want to spend a lot of money to do so tend to say, ‘No.’”