A new plan to redraw congressional districts in Texas, created by state Republicans at the behest of President Trump, threatens to upend next year’s midterm elections by greatly increasing the odds that the GOP maintains control of the House during the second half of Mr. Trump’s presidency. 

The proposed map would likely eliminate five Democratic seats in Texas by carving out districts in regions of the state where Trump carried November’s presidential election by 10 or more points. The GOP would be likely to win 30 of the 38 House seats relative to the Democrats if the map is approved by the Republican-controlled state legislature.

The current map in Texas was drawn up in 2021 and has since reliably yielded 25 seats for Republicans, and 13 for Democrats.

Democrats nationwide are steeling themselves for a fight over what they view as a critical challenge to their prospects of retaking control of the House’s lower chamber in 2026.

The House minority leader, Hakeem Jefferies, was scheduled to be at Austin on Wednesday to meet with Democratic lawmakers to strategize how to combat the Republican efforts during the state legislature’s 30-day special session, which ends on August 19. 

Lone Star State Democrats are mulling a walkout from the current session, which would prevent the quorum necessary to approve the redistricting, according to a report from Politico.

Democratic governors from other states, including California and New York, have said they will redraw the maps of their states in their own favor if Texas goes through with its plan. Other liberal leaders are also expected to launch legal challenges against Texas if the plan is approved.

“Texas just released a map so rigged it might as well have been drawn at Mar-a-Lago,” Governor Newsom said in a post on X  along with an image of the proposed map. “California won’t be sitting on the sidelines.”

The leading fundraising arm for congressional Democrats, the House Majority PAC, recently committed $20 million to fighting the effort.

“The DNC is all hands on deck to hold Donald Trump and Greg Abbott accountable for their scheme to use the tragic Texas floods as cover to redraw the Texas maps in a last-ditch effort to save the Republican majority,” the chairman of the DNC, Ken Martin, said in a statement to ABC News.

“Republicans know that the only way they hold onto the majority is by rigging the system but it won’t work,” he said. 

President Obama will also headline a fundraiser at Martha’s Vineyard next month with his former attorney general, Eric Holder, in an effort to quash the Republican Party’s redistricting plans.

Among Texas Democrats who would be in danger from the redistricting are Representative Henry Cuellar of the Rio Grande Valley, a region that Mr. Trump won by seven points.

The new maps could also lead to Republicans gaining a seat in the traditionally Democratic Austin-San Antonio region. Congressman Lloyd Doggett, a Democrat who represents a district within Austin, and Congressman Greg Cesar, who represents the neighboring 35th District, would have to spar over one seat if the redrawn maps are approved.

Following the U.S. Census every 10 years, congressional districts undergo mandatory redistricting, creating a process often marked by intense political conflict.

The current initiative in Texas comes after Mr. Trump’s Department of Justice sent a letter to Texas leaders claiming that four of its districts were unconstitutionally based on race. As a result, Governor Abbott added redistricting to the special session’s agenda, citing the “constitutional concerns” of the DOJ.

While elections with two incumbent candidates are often the result of redistricting, the new maps are not expected to create any Republican primaries for the 2026 races.