While Democrats look to be consolidating their leads in key Senate races around America, the race for control of the House of Representatives is suddenly coming under increased scrutiny. It’s a long shot, but so was what Edward G. Robinson drew to in “The Cincinnati Kid.”

It’s useful to look at FiveThirtyEight’s forecasting model for context. It gives Republicans a 77 percent chance to win the House and Democrats a 23 percent chance to retain control.

Keen observers will note that these odds are not so far off from the odds that FiveThirtyEight gave a certain real estate magnate of  defeating Secretary Clinton in 2016. That year, the forecasters gave Donald Trump a 28.6 percent chance of winning the White House.

Although the competitions are quite different, the example illustrates two basic statistical facts that are easy to breeze by — that unlikely events still happen and that a 20 percent chance is still a pretty good shot.

So, with about 11 weeks until the November elections and three weeks until the unofficial start of campaign season, this is a moment to dive in and look at what these percentages are attempting to encapsulate in the battle for the lower chamber.

This year — as every two years — each of the 435 House seats are up for election. This year, too, will be the first election cycle that candidates run in the new districts that were drawn from the results of the 2020 Census. As it stands, Democrats control 220 House seats and Republicans 211, with four vacancies. All will be on the ballot in November.

This means that Republicans need only to gain seven seats to become the majority party. Likewise Democrats can only afford to lose two seats if they are to remain in the majority.

Decision Desk HQ at Washington University in Saint Louis tracks the most competitive House races, of which they identify 14 as toss-ups. Of these 14 seats only two of are currently held by Republicans. 

This means that for Democrats to retain the House they would need to win 10 of the 12 toss-up races in districts that are currently represented by Democrats, something that, while possible, is unlikely. Few inside straights that Edward G. Robinson ever drew to were tighter. 

A political sage at the University of Georgia, Charles Bullock, explains that while toss-up races do normally break heavily in favor of one party or another, he wouldn’t bet the farm on the Democrats pulling out 10 of 12 wins.

“To lose three seats would be a great year for the president’s party but under the current circumstance that would still flip,” he tells the Sun. “If  Republicans pick up a seat here and a seat there that turns out to be a pretty good day for them.”

He also argues that the GOP enjoys an advantage when it comes to the map this year, as they were able to secure more safe seats via redistricting than the Democrats did.

“Both sides tried to come up with plans to advantage themselves, and Republican plans generally got approved by the courts and Democrats generally got slapped on the wrist by their courts,” Mr. Bullock said.

In other words, while gerrymandered maps in New York, which would have created a couple more seats for Democrats, were struck down, similarly partisan maps in states like Florida were approved.

So, even if Democrats post an extraordinarily good midterm performance and only cede three seats to the GOP, they would still find themselves in the minority. Despite the long odds, there is still a path to retaining the majority for the Democrats, though it would require a combination of tactful messaging, a huge war chest, and at least a little bit of luck.

A political scientist at Hamilton College, Phil Klinkner, argues that though the Democrats are unlikely to win the House in 2022, unlikely does not equal impossible.

“Certainly things are looking a lot better now than they did three months ago,” he tells the Sun. “Who knows how things will look in three more months — voters have incredibly short memories.”

He identifies a few trends working in the Democrats’ favor: abortion, falling gasoline prices, and President Trump dominating headlines. While the Supreme Court’s abortion decision and disdain for Mr. Trump will drive Democratic voters to the polls, he argues, falling gas prices ease the pain of inflation.

Although he does see a path for the Democrats to retain the majority, Mr. Klinkner stresses that the margins in the House are slim, and if the race remains close the final outcome could come down to “a couple thousand votes in a handful of districts.”

“At that point you might as well take a spin on the roulette wheel,” he says. “But if Democrats come out of this holding onto the Senate and losing the House they can still feel very satisfied.”

If the Democrats do keep the House, Speaker Pelosi can twirl a well-chomped cigar, look Minority Leader McCarthy in the eye, and tell him, “Gets down to what it’s all about, doesn’t it? Making the wrong move at the right time.”