DeSantis Looms Large Over Florida Governor’s Race, but There’s a Hitch

One week out from the Florida primary and the Democratic race is tightening up even while Governor DeSantis waits in the wings, solidifying his standing for the November general election — at least for now.Two polls in the waning days of the Democratic race paint two different pictures and are problematic for the conventional wisdom that a former governor, Congressman Charlie Crist, would easily defeat Florida’s agriculture commissioner, Nikki Fried.On August 16, a University of North Florida poll had Ms. Fried four points ahead of Mr. Crist. The day before, Mr. Crist’s campaign released a poll showing that he was ahead by 10 points.Mr. Crist’s campaign called the University of North Florida poll an outlier, but a pollster from the university, Michael Binder, has a different explanation for the discrepancy.“Fried seems to have reversed the eight-point lead that Crist had when we asked registered Democrats about vote choice in February,” Mr. Binder said. “It’s possible that the overturning of Roe v. Wade changed the make-up of this race, and has particularly energized women that are almost 20 points more likely to vote for her.”Regardless of whether Mr. Binder’s hypothesis proves to be true, his poll also reported that Mr. DeSantis enjoys an early lead over either of his potential general election opponents.It found that Mr. DeSantis is ahead of Ms. Fried by seven points and Mr. Crist by eight points, and is expected to carry 50 percent of the vote in either matchup. The poll also found that Congresswoman Val Demmings, a Democrat, is leading Senator Rubio by four points in the race for the U.S. Senate.Although Mr. DeSantis enjoys a leg up on either Democratic challenger, his current lead is a sharp fall from the 20-point advantage when the pollster asked the same questions in February.With his race for re-election tightening up, the governor has staked a clear game plan for the general election and has the funds to execute it. Mr. DeSantis’s strategy centers on schools, a front that has opened up between Republicans and Democrats in earnest since Governor Youngkin’s victory in Virginia in 2021.Mr. DeSantis has already endorsed a slate of candidates for school board positions around the Sunshine State and is planning a tour to promote his endorsements throughout August.In this summer’s “DeSantis Education Tour,” as the governor’s campaign has named it, Mr. DeSantis has already proclaimed that he and his candidates will keep critical race theory and “woke gender ideology” out of schools.Mr. DeSantis’s focus on education has led Democrats in the state to announce their own roster of school board endorsements.Mr. DeSantis has collected some $140 million in donations for his re-election bid, including $15 million from the Republican Governors Association, which has snubbed a number of candidates in other states.For comparison Mr. Crist has raised just more than $11.7 million in his bid for governor, and Ms. Fried has raised just less than $2.5 million.There is, however, a sliver of hope for Democrats, and it comes down to what Mr. Binder identified as a probable reason for his poll’s divergent findings — abortion and the political battle surrounding it.Although Florida Republicans have been spared the voter backlash against Roe v. Wade thus far, there is some evidence that voters in the state, if mobilized on the issue, could oust the current administration.Pew Research Center reports that some 56 percent of Floridians think that abortion should be legal in most or all cases. The issue, as in much of America, could prove to be a powerful one in Florida.Recently, the governor took sides when he suspended the state attorney for Hillsborough County, Andrew Warren, for signing a pledge not to prosecute women or doctors for violating the state’s new abortion laws.Mr. Warren filed suit Wednesday in an effort to get his job back, arguing that the governor violated his First Amendment rights and alleging that Mr. DeSantis did not identify a proper reason for suspension“If the governor’s allowed to do this, what’s left of democracy?” Mr. Warren said at a news conference. “If the governor’s allowed to retaliate against me for speaking out, what’s left of the First Amendment.”

DeSantis Looms Large Over Florida Governor’s Race, but There’s a Hitch

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