One thing is clear from an authoritative report that the Russians are angling to operate from an air base in Indonesia: A lot of people don’t want them there.

Indonesia officially denied agreeing to any such thing, but it was difficult to refute the report in a highly respected British journal, Janes, that Indonesia had “received an official request from Moscow, seeking permission” for Russian Aerospace Forces aircraft “to be based at a facility in Indonesia’s easternmost province.”

Without acknowledging the denials, the Janes website set off a firestorm of angry comments by stating unequivocally, “Separate sources from the Indonesian government have confirmed with Janes that the request was received by the office of Minister of Defence Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin following his meeting with Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Sergei Shoigu in February 2025.”

Russia, Janes said, citing “documents” it had seen, “seeks to base several long-range aircraft at the Manuhua Air Force Base, which shares a runway with the Frans Kaisiepo Airport,” home to an Indonesian air force squadron in the province of Papua, bordering the independent nation of Papua New Guinea.

In the face of Indonesian denials of any such deal, a professor at Australian National University, Matthew Sussex, writes that Moscow and Jakarta have been seeking “to deepen their military ties” ever since Indonesia’s new president, Prabowo Subianto, was elected last October. Indeed, he notes, “the two countries conducted their first-ever joint naval exercises a month after Prabowo took office.”

Far removed though Indonesia might appear from Russia’s war in Ukraine, Mr. Sussex believes that Russia sees the base as playing into its hostile relationship with unfriendly European nations united in their support of Ukraine.

“The Kremlin is also cognizant that Europe won’t be a friend for the foreseeable future,” he says. “As such, it’s even more pressing for Russia to establish itself as a player in the Indo-Pacific region — and with that comes a military and security presence.” Moscow, he notes, “has tried on numerous occasions to pivot to Asia to give itself more economic heft and leverage in the region.”

There is no doubt that Russia and Indonesia are on quite close military terms despite denials of any deal for the Russians to establish a permanent presence on Indonesian soil. The Australian Broadcasting Corporation reports that six years ago two Russian planes capable of carrying nuclear warheads flew out of the same New Guinea base on an “intelligence mission.”

“The prospect of Russian long-range aircraft so close to the Australian mainland would set off alarm bells in Canberra,” the Australian state broadcaster said. “Indonesia’s defence minister has assured Australia it will not allow Russian planes to be based in Papua province.” The Kremlin, Australia’s ABC said, “when asked about the report that Russia has asked Indonesia for permission to base aircraft in its territory, said there was a lot of fake news around.”

The louder the denials, though, the more reliable seemed the report, especially because Janes has had such an extraordinary reputation for its all-around knowledge of fighting ships and aircraft since its founding in 1898 as a compendium of military intelligence.

Adding to the credibility was that an Indonesian girl was photographed placing a garland around the neck of a beaming Russian officer in dress whites during last year’s Russian-Indonesian naval exercise.

Questions about the air base were not cleared up by Australia’s defense minister, Richard Marles, when he told ABC that Indonesia’s defense minister had assured him “in the clearest possible terms” that news of “the prospect of Russian aircraft operating from Indonesia are simply not true.”

More credibly, ABC quoted an analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Malcolm Davis, as saying: “The Australians, the Japanese and the Americans will be putting pressure on the Indonesians to say no.”