Dethroned TV Stars Almost Never Recover, but Could Tucker Carlson Defy the Odds?

Tucker Carlson’s abrupt firing from Fox News on Monday shocked the media and political worlds. Looming large over all the speculation and media ferment is the big question: Can Mr. Carlson recover? Or is he now consigned to the crowded graveyard of dethroned TV megastars?Stars in Mr. Carlson’s stratosphere rarely if ever regain their power and influence once they lose the platform from which they ruled. Katie Couric, Matt Lauer, Oprah Winfrey, Jon Stewart, Jay Leno, Diane Sawyer, Megyn Kelly, Bill O’Reilly, and David Letterman are all examples of TV stars of the highest wattage who drifted into relative obscurity after exiting (voluntarily or involuntarily) their longtime homes.Is Mr. Carlson different? Mr. Carlson’s ouster has already caused backlash against Fox, with conservative media types posting farewells and fond memories online for the beloved cable news host. At the time of his firing, Mr. Carlson was on top of the media world, with his program being the most-watched primetime cable show in recent years, according to Neilsen data. There are still a number of pathways for the lifelong media figure to turn his following into a new empire. The president of the New York Young Republican Club, Gavin Mario Wax, told The New York Sun that Mr. Carlson’s appeal stems from his ability to “speak truth to power.”“No cable news host in over a generation has had the impact that Tucker Carlson has had on the American body politic,” Mr. Wax said in a message. “He brought in new viewers, young viewers, who wanted to hear coherent political takes and observations, not just regurgitated talking points.”After years of bouncing around cable news as an analyst and short-lived host on various programs, Mr. Carlson began his Fox News show in late 2016, first in the 7 p.m. time slot previously held by Greta van Susteren before he replaced Megyn Kelly at 9 p.m. He eventually settled into the 8 p.m. slot following the firing of Bill O’Reilly due to the disclosure of sexual misconduct settlements. Since 2016, all of those hosts — Ms. Susteren, Ms. Kelly, and Mr. O’Reilly — have declined significantly in their ability to reach audiences. Ms. Susteren briefly joined MSNBC before eventually anchoring a much smaller show on a conservative network, Newsmax. Mr. O’Reilly has been doing radio while still writing books that he can no longer promote on Fox News.Even Ms. Kelly, who has gained a new kind of fame with an influential podcast, has nowhere near the power and influence (and certainly nowhere near the income) she had at Fox News.Mr. Carlson’s ability to maintain his loyal audience may depend on his starting something completely new, not just sliding into another time slot at a far smaller network, as some of his former colleagues have done. Glenn Beck is the rare example of someone who found real, if fleeting, success in building a new media company after leaving Fox News in 2011. Shortly after the conservative commentator was forced out of the network where he had a hugely influential 5 p.m. show, Mr. Beck founded TheBlaze TV, an early example of a successful streaming and paid subscription model. By the end of the calendar year, Mr. Beck’s new venture had paid off, generating $27 million in revenue. Unfortunately for Mr. Beck, a rotating cast of executives, poor financial decisions, and an ill-timed turn against President Trump led to layoffs over the years, forcing him to take over as CEO rather than focus on the editorial and news side of the company. Blaze Media, as it is now known, continues to produce a number of podcasts and radio shows with conservative commentators like Mark Levin, Steve Deace, and Dave Rubin, and of late appears to be enjoying something of a comeback. Mr. Beck took to Twitter on Tuesday to say Mr. Carlson still has a bright future ahead of him with his audience. “You are too smart to legitimately worry,” Mr. Beck wrote. “Millions are standing behind you. I am one of them. What you choose to do next could make all the difference in our country’s next chapter. I can’t wait to see what you do.” On Monday, he said that Mr. Carlson’s departure from Fox News was “suicidal” for the network. A very successful conservative media company Mr. Carlson must be eyeing is Ben Shapiro’s Daily Wire, which became Mr. Shapiro’s full-time venture after leaving Breitbart in 2016. The Daily Wire has grown exponentially since its launch in 2015. The media outlet has surpassed one million paid subscribers, began developing programs for children, created a new publishing service, and launched a feature film. Last year, the company reportedly brought in $200 million in revenue. Unlike most conservative outlets, the Daily Wire has found a successful footing in the giant “other” online world where a new form of conservative media is thriving, largely unseen by media elites who are preoccupied with cable news, which is in spectacular decline.Before leaving Fox News, Mr. Carlson launched a daytime program called “Tucker Carlson Today,” which served as a long-form, one-on-one interview series that was released on a subscription basis through Fox Nation. Mr. Carlson’s success in a primetime slot made him a national name unlike any other cable host. A new, independent media outlet founded and led by Mr. Carlson could likely lead to a huge migration to subscription services among his loyal audience, much like other conservatives have seen in recent years. Unlike his defenestrated peers, Mr. Carlson may have a real chance of a second act.

Dethroned TV Stars Almost Never Recover, but Could Tucker Carlson Defy the Odds?

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