Will the widely expected — though not certain — rise of a nationalist party in Germany’s Sunday election deprive the European Union of its largest economy? Will the Alternative for Germany party’s advocacy of exiting the EU, an idea popularly known as Dexit, eventually cause the Union to collapse?

For now, officials at Brussels are putting on a brave face. They cite Brexit, as the British referendum to leave the EU was known, as an example of the likely economic downturn for any country leaving the EU. Yet, Germany’s AfD, which is widely predicted to emerge as Germany’s second largest party in Sunday’s national election, is rooted in part in hostility to the EU.

“People who don’t understand this think that an election in Germany is going to make a huge difference,” the EU ambassador at the United Nations, Stavros Lambrinidis of Greece, tells the Sun. “It will, of course. Every election makes a difference, but the European Union will find a way to get stronger around it. And you have my signature on this. Please, bet against the EU” at your own risk. 

Established 12 years ago, the AfD is a party whose first cause was a pushback against the Eurozone’s financial bailout of countries like Greece, which were on the brink of bankruptcy. The party later raised the flag of opposition to Chancellor Merkel’s liberal immigration policies that flooded the county with mostly Mideastern migrants.

That cause gained popularity, especially in the economically depressed former East Germany. A recent deadly car-ramming at Munich, which involved an immigrant from Afghanistan, might even fetch more votes for the AfD than the 21 percent that current polls project.

Under the leadership of Alice Weidel, who is the AfD’s first candidate to become chancellor, the party is now also returning to its roots: opposition to a common European economy. “We consider it necessary for Germany to leave the European Union and to establish a new European community,” the AfD wrote last month in a communique to its members.

The AfD proposes a looser association than what it considers to be the bureaucracy-ridden EU, a “Europe of Fatherlands” that would share a common market and unite behind economic interests. In addition, the party also calls for abolishing the common currency, the Euro, and replacing it with something it calls a “transfer union.” 

With a gross domestic product of $4.43 trillion, Germany is Europe’s largest economy. Behind it is a non-EU member, Britain, which boasts a GDP of $3.33 trillion, and two EU members: France, with $3.05 trillion GDP, and Italy with $2.9 trillion. 

Leaving Brussels, though, is easier said than done for Germany. To begin with, EU membership is part of the country’s basic law, which is an equivalent of a German constitution. Additionally, while the AfD can capture more seats at the Bundestag than all parties but one, all other parties have vowed to create a “firewall” to keep Ms. Weidel out of a ruling coalition. 

At the same time, an uneasy right-left coalition could create friction and might force its members to coalesce with the AfD on some issues. The Conservatives leader, Friedrich Merz, who is projected to win the largest number of votes Sunday, has been accused of having already broken the so-called firewall, when he allied with the AfD last month to pass a law restricting immigration. 

A large AfD showing Sunday could further erode the national taboo against its policies. Meanwhile, traditional economists warn that if Germany somehow ends up leaving the EU, its GDP stands to shrink by more than 5 percent — and that other European countries would stop purchasing its goods.

“Yes, Germany profits from the EU,” an AfD spokesman, Ronald Glaser, told Deutsche Welle recently. “But we believe that we would have the advantage if we arrived at other agreements.” Also, he added, “Why should all the companies and consumers in Italy, France, Sweden, or wherever, not want German products anymore just because we’re not in the EU? Switzerland isn’t in the EU, and it exports to all these countries.”