An extraordinary surge in early voting this weekend in the New York City mayoral election has the political cognoscenti looking for clues as to which candidate this benefits — Zohran Mamdani, Andrew Cuomo, or Curtis Sliwa? Opinions are divided.

Five times as many New Yorkers cast ballots in the first day of early voting on Saturday than did on the first day of early voting in the mayoral election four years ago. Manhattan led the surge with 24,046 ballots cast on Saturday, up from 4,563 four years ago.

Brooklyn and Queens also saw five-fold increases in early voting, with 22,105 and 19,045 voters casting ballots respectively. The Bronx and Staten Island trailed these three boroughs but also saw large increases from four years ago.

“I imagine it’s good for Mamdani because he is the change candidate,” a Democratic strategist, Michael Hardaway, tells the New York Sun of the high early voting numbers. “I think this election is about people who are pissed off about the cost of living in New York City.”

The Democratic candidate, Mr. Mamdani, made affordability the central message of his campaign., promising New Yorkers free buses, free childcare, and a rent freeze on subsidized apartments. He has a double-digit lead in all major polls heading into election day November 4.

Mr. Mamdani won Brooklyn, Manhattan, and Queens in June’s Democratic primary against the Democrat-turned-independent candidate, Governor Cuomo, who is now his chief challenger in the general election. Some politicos say the day one early voting totals bode well for Mr. Mamdani because they show the strongest turnout in the boroughs he won.

Yet the New York City Board of Elections voter check-in numbers released after Saturday’s polls closed do not break down the voting totals down beyond borough. A Democratic strategist, Hank Sheinkopf tells the Sun it’s impossible to know if the voters coming out in Manhattan or Brooklyn are from neighborhoods that favor Mr. Cuomo or Mr. Mamdani.

The Board of Elections does have a polling site wait time map that is updated in real time. The polls have yet to close on Sunday, so day two early voting numbers have not been released. A glance at the wait time map on Sunday, though, showed over 50-minute wait time at a polling location on the Upper East Side, a potentially positive sign for Mr. Cuomo.

“They will not be voting for Mamdani,” Mr. Sheinkopf says of the Upper East Side, particularly after a protracted campaign that revealed Mr. Mamdani’s socialist views.

There were also long waits on the Upper West Side, which split about evenly for Mr. Mamdani and Mr. Cuomo in the primary. Long waits were also reported in downtown Brooklyn and just north of Central Park in Harlem, both areas that Mr. Mamdani won in the primary.

The Lower East Side of Manhattan also had long waits on Sunday, and this is one of the areas of Manhattan that had pockets Mr. Cuomo won in June. Orthodox Jewish areas in Brooklyn saw moderate-to-heavy wait times on Sunday.

“Staten Islanders are not voting for Mamdani. The Bronx — if they’re cooperative apartment owners voting — they’re not stupid, they’re not going to vote for Mamdani. Depends where those votes are coming from,” Mr. Sheinkopf says about trying to dissect the early numbers. “Jews in Brooklyn are not voting for Mamdani, except for the idiots and the brownstone belt.”

“We won’t know until the middle of this week,” he says.

The Cuomo campaign is trying to spin these early voting numbers in their favor. “It’s been clear most voters don’t want New York City to be a socialist experiment with a diminished police force, no jails, decriminalized prostitution, and a weakened education system that encourages mediocrity,” Mr. Cuomo’s spokesperson, Rich Azzopardi, tells the Sun in a statement.

“This is the most important election of our lifetime and the turnout thus far shows that New Yorkers know it,” he said.

The Republican candidate, Mr. Sliwa, also thinks these early voting numbers work in his favor. “I’ve urged my followers to take my lead from yesterday when I voted early,” he told the Sun.

Mr. Mamdani, with the help of the Democratic Socialists of America, had an impressive voter turnout operation in the primary. They knocked on 1.6 million doors and made two million phone calls. If Mr. Cuomo is going to eke out a win he will need record turnout.

Just over one million New Yorkers voted in the 2021 mayoral election. This year’s totals are expected to surpass that.

Mr. Hardaway says the enthusiasm is behind Mr. Mamdani. “Let’s be honest, how many Cuomo voters are excited, and how many are just voting against the other guy?”