Bad News?

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun
The New York Sun
NEW YORK SUN CONTRIBUTOR

The report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday that according to the Establishment Survey 112,000 jobs had been created during the month of June is being spun as bad news for the Bush administration. The theory is that because job growth had been averaging more than a quarter million a month, these numbers were “disappointing.” But it’s going to take more than one report to dull the gloss of an economy that’s creating employment at the rate of 1.3 million new jobs a year.

The 112,000 job figure was derived from the Establishment Survey. This survey of established businesses showed 235,000,324,000,and 353,000 new jobs in May, April, and March, respectively. On a net basis, America’s business establishments have added 1.27 million jobs just since the beginning of the year. If this supposedly “disappointing” pace continued for the remainder of the year, 2004 would see the creation of roughly 2 million jobs.

Those facts are based on the more pessimistic of the two surveys whose results were released last week. Lost amid the reports of a less-than-expected 112,000 jobs in June was the much higher-than-expected 259,000 jobs the government found when it surveyed American house holds. The Household Survey has tended to show consistently higher job growth, which reflects the fact that in an era of entrepreneurial vitality, most of the action has taken place outside of America’s skyscrapers.

Whether one prefers the payroll survey or the household survey, any reasonable and objective account of the American employment landscape has to sound pretty much like this: Since the tax cut last year the economy has been growing at rates far higher than historical averages. After a short lag this growth began to reflect itself in renewed job creation.

According to the survey that focuses on established businesses, jobs have been growing rapidly this year. According to the survey that focuses on households, and is therefore better at capturing micro-enterprise, job growth since the tax cut has been growing even more rapidly.

Offshore outsourcing, which is 2004’s cause celebre, is occurring so rarely (the bureau found only 4,600 off-shored jobs in the first quarter) as to be less than a rounding error in a labor market that’s over 130 million strong. If these numbers are disappointing it can only be to those who are rooting for the American economy to sag between now and the time Americans go to the polls in November.

The New York Sun
NEW YORK SUN CONTRIBUTOR

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.


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