Betting Against Bernanke

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

Regular readers of these columns will be aware of our enthusiasm for the newsletter known as Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, but even by that measure the issue just out is memorably wonderful. Its lead essay “‘Exceptional’ is the word,” is about what it calls American monetary exceptionalism, or the “reserve-currency privilege.” Quoth Mr. Grant: “We judge that a fair share of the world’s financial drama is attributable to the unanchored monetary system. Prices and valuations hang by the insubstantial thread of manipulated currencies and inflated credit.”

Mr. Grant sketches all sorts of scenarios for what could happen, including a crisis of the euro, and notes that the United States, for all its problems, “remains the world’s destination and just as it draws people, it might well draw their money in a Europe crisis,” leaving “champions of sound money to gnash their teeth.” But he argues that while American exceptionalism may be a bullush doctrine, “Not so American monetary exceptionalism.”

Reading Ben Bernanke’s February 3 speech before the National Press Club — in which the Fed Chairman said, as Mr. Grant put it, that with “ ‘core’ inflation registering just 0.7% in 2010 the Fed would seek a slightly faster gait of debasement” — Mr. Grant remarks that one can see “the outlines of potential disaster begin to form.” Maybe, with the Fed so confident of its ability to manipulate markets, a third round of quantitative easing. Quoth Mr. Grant: “An unanchored currency presents a temptation that mortal man finds irresistible.”

Mr. Grant concludes by quoting Mr. Bernanke as suggesting that the “two most important driving forces for the federal budget deficit are the aging of the U.S. population and rapidly rising health-care costs” Mr. Grant begs to differ. “The most important driving forces for the federal budget deficit are the reserve currency privilege and stunted funding costs.” He says the Federal Reserve is “directly responsible” for the second problem and “seemingly oblivious” to the first. “if monetary turmoil were a stock,” he concludes, “we would be bullish on it.”


The New York Sun

© 2024 The New York Sun Company, LLC. All rights reserved.

Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. The material on this site is protected by copyright law and may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, cached or otherwise used.

The New York Sun

Sign in or  create a free account

By continuing you agree to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use