It is a measure of the unpredictability of this presidential election that the contest is turning out to be considerably closer than expected in New Jersey. The Garden State had been deemed to be so firmly in Senator Kerry’s camp that Republican campaign strategists opted not to invest much effort there, because the cost of buying air time in its pricey television markets was deemed prohibitive relative to the remote prospect of winning the medium-sized prize of 15 electoral college votes. Certainly, New Jersey has undergone a curious evolution. It went to Republicans from 1968 to 1988. Then, seduced by Governor Clinton’s charms, it shifted into the Democratic column in 1992; Vice President Gore’s margin there was nearly 16 percentage points in 2000.

Its position as one of the three highest income states might be thought to predispose it to the Republicans. But the highly affluent and educated electorate became ever-more culturally liberal, sandwiched between New York and Philadelphia. Four years ago, George W. Bush’s Texas twang and religious fundamentalism repelled many suburban “soccer moms” and “cafeteria Catholics.” If any place validates Michael Barone’s contention that Americans increasingly vote for their values rather than their pocket books, it is this perennially unfashionable, politically amorphous state – where voters in the south of the state are likelier to know the name of the mayor of Philadelphia than the panjandrums in Trenton.

But the past is a foreign country. Along with New York, no state was more affect ed than New Jersey by the terrorist attacks of September 11. “Soccer moms” became “security moms” as terrorism became the salient issue for married couples, an issue on which Mr. Bush retained a clear polling advantage throughout the campaign. Moreover, the free-spiritedness of the New Jersey electorate means that it should not be taken for granted. It has among the highest number of independents in the nation, or around a third of self-identified eligible voters, who tend to make their mind up late. Incumbents such as Senator Bradley and Governor Florio were way ahead in their re-election battles in 1990 and 1993, respectively; in the end, Mr. Bradley barely squeaked by and Mr. Florio lost.

In the Senate race of 2000, an under funded Republican was almost able to defeat the heavily favored Democrat Jon Corzine, despite Vice President Gore’s commanding margin at the top of the ticket and a Democratic advantage in campaign funds. Now the local Democratic machine may not be at a peak level of performance, in consequence of the scandal that is forcing the departure from office of Governor McGreevey after he gave a key position in state homeland security to a person with whom he was allegedly having an affair. Today, 12% of voters are undecided, a high number even by local standards. The time may not yet be ripe for a “November surprise,” but a close contest in New Jersey would at least ensure that both parties vie for the state’s affections with greater ardor in the future.