Israel’s Election Irony

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

It may be too soon to reckon who is going to be the next prime minister of Israel. Exit polls are showing that both Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud and Benny Gantz’s Blue & White fell short of a majority, although at the deadline for our bulldog edition Mr. Gantz’s grouping would be ahead in the coming Knesset by a seat or two. The military vote, or any official count, has yet to be disclosed. It all may take some weeks.

It’s not too soon, though, to remark on one of the ironies of this election — the possibility, if only one such, that the next government of the Jewish state could be determined by its Arab citizens. They made a strong turnout this time around, in contrast to recent elections. So the Arab “Joint List” could end up with 12 or 13 seats or slightly more. That is no small thing in a parliament comprising 120 members. They could have an impact.

Not because the Arabs are likely to enter a coalition government, or even to be offered. They are too truculent to enter a government led by either Blue & White or Likud, and the two leading parties are unlikely to ask them. Yet the Arabs could still make themselves felt should the head of state, President Rivlin, tap Mr. Gantz to try to cobble together a majority.

Mr. Gantz’s Blue & White, the exit polls show, would start with between 32 and 34 seats — again, tentative. The ex-general would turn to Labor (five seats) and to Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu (eight to ten seats) and the leftist Democratic Union (five seats). The exact tallies are estimates. It’s hard to see, though, how Mr. Ganz could get to a 61-seat majority without the Arab Joint List.

Mr. Lieberman, in remarks late today in Israel, made it clear that what he wants is a broad national unity government, comprising Likud, Blue & White, and his own party. He called on President Rivlin to invite Messrs. Gantz and Netanyahu quickly, as soon as this Friday, for negotiations. He’d refused to join a Netanyahu government five months ago, and now he’s in a position to be kingmaker.

Then again, too, Mr. Gantz, as temporary measure, could barter for a narrow mandate with a nod from the Arabs while not including them in his government. That is, he could try for a minority government. It’s hard to imagine a configuration in which Mr. Netanyahu is not premier and is able to maintain his immunity from prosecution. If he’s indicted but not premier, he could not serve as a minister. He might prefer then to bow out.

At that point, it’s possible to imagine Likud, Israel Beiteinu, and Blue & White forming a national unity government to preside over, among other things, the end of Mr. Netanyahu’s magnificent career. We stress that it’s not an inevitable outcome, nor, from our point of view, a desirable one. It’s just a possible one and, given the role of the Arabs, an ironical one for what remains the only real democracy in the Middle East.

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Correction: This editorial has been updated from an earlier edition for the latest exit polls and corrected for a more accurate explanation Mr. Netanyahu’s exposure to indictment.


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