Mexico Votes

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

The best news from this week’s voting south of the border is that Mexico is no Florida. America’s own almost-too-close-to-call election in 2000 sparked dire warnings of a constitutional crisis and was only resolved by an 11th-hour Supreme Court ruling that still leaves a bitter taste in some mouths. Mexico’s version, played out in an election that may only be decided by several hundred thousand votes out of 42.1 million ballots cast, is actually good news.

In context, the close race marks another milestone along Mexico’s path to a competitive democracy. Thirty years ago, the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, captured more than 90% of the vote in presidential polling. The PRI held power for more than 70 years, only losing its grip when Vicente Fox won the last election, in 2000. So whatever the immediate controversy, that Mexico now has democratic institutions strong enough to both lead to and — likely — survive such a narrow result is news in its own right, a former assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs, Roger Noriega, told us yesterday.

The recount, which is expected to be the final word, swung toward the candidate of the center-right National Action Party, Felipe Calderon. Mr. Calderon campaigned on a pro-business platform. A staunch supporter of free trade, he has talked about the need for labor-market reforms and bolstering the rule of law. He has also proposed opening up Mexico’s energy sector in an effort to attract foreign capital, thus touching what Mr. Noriega describes as the “third rail of Mexican politics.” Mr. Calderon, who attended Harvard, is likely to develop a healthy relationship with America although nationalist elements within his PAN party may restrain him a bit.

Mr. Calderon’s leftist opponent, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, is not going gentle into that good political night. His supporters in the Democratic Revolution Party, the PRD, are understandably unhappy about his narrow defeat,and some are suggesting Mr. Lopez Obrador’s backers could take to the streets. The candidate himself has led such marches in the past, although it’s unclear whether he would support riots in his favor this time around.

Observers agree that whatever the short-term inconvenience of such protests, however, the long-term damage would accrue only to Mr. Lopez Obrador himself. Such post-election protests, known colloquially as the “second round,” used to be the only check on blatantly fraudulent results during the PRI era, but Mexicans have moved on. Any protest now would merely cement Mr. Lopez Obrador’s reputation as a firebrand who’s not ready for primetime.

Ultimately, this election points up how the leftward tilt some have purported to detect in Latin American politics of late is more complicated than it might at first appear. The election result is far from a resounding victory for anyone, but Mexicans tilted narrowly toward a right-of-center candidate campaigning on a pro-business platform. They also voted against Latin America’s most prominent left-wing politician, Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez. Mr. Calderon surged across the finish line in part thanks to ads painting his opponent as a stooge of Mr. Chavez, marking the second time in as many months that voters in the region have rejected closer ties with Venezuela. However tense the next few days, Mr. Calderon’s accession will mark good news for Mexico and good news for the region.


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