President Clinton, in his now-famous hospital-bed phone call with Senator Kerry, reportedly advised the Democratic candidate to steer the campaign away from Vietnam. Mr. Clinton and his former staffers such as Paul Begala say that this election should be about the economy.

We hope that any campaign discussion of the economy starts with the centerpiece of the Kerry campaign’s criticism of the Bush economic record, namely the so-called Middle Class Squeeze. The middle class, by this telling, is stressed as never before, pushing bankruptcies to “an all time high” and making families unable to afford rising tuitions for college, which is more necessary now than ever.

For Mr. Kerry is wrong about bankruptcies when he claims – as he does in his campaign advertisements – that they are at an all-time high. Personal bankruptcy filings have now declined for the third quarter in a row, and the most recent quarter reported by the United States Bankruptcy Court was the lowest in the past four years. On the business side, the court reports that the number of firms filing for bankruptcy plunged 22% in the second quarter of 2004 from the first quarter. This is typical of times of economic recovery and is especially the case in eras of low interest rates. It is debt that typically drives a business into insolvency.

The news is similar in the matter of credit card payments. According to Moody’s Investor’s Service, more Americans are paying their credit card bills on time than at any point in the past four years. During the second quarter of this year the percentage of Americans who were delinquent on payments slid to only 4.4% from 5.2% the year before. It’s not just the number of people paying their credit card bills on time; people are paying down their credit card balances more than ever before, according to Moody’s. When the economy is booming, people are more able to pay their bills. Would the already small proportion of Americans who are delinquent on their credit card payments be shrinking even more if America were really in the midst of a middle class squeeze? Would they be paying off more of their balances as well?

What about college tuition? Candidate Kerry’s Middle Class Misery Index says that since Mr. Bush acceded college tuitions have risen 13%. However, FactCheck.org, a nonpartisan watchdog, found that Mr. Kerry’s calculation excluded private college tuition, which grew a relatively modest 5%.

Does this support the Middle Class Squeeze claim? Not really. Most Americans (at least those whose last names are not Heinz or Kerry) borrow much of the money they use to pay their tuition. It turns out that like so many other interest rates, student loan interest rates are at all-time lows.

Under Mr. Bush, Stafford loan rates have plunged to 3.4% from 8.2%. State school enrollees have most of their tuition hikes erased by the effect of lower interest rates and private-school enrollees end up paying less for their education factoring in tuition inflation and lower interest payments.

The data on bankruptcies, credit card payments, and college costs make clear that the middle class is gaining prosperity, not losing it. The unifying theme is interest rates. Big-ticket purchases like automobiles, homes, and household appliances tend to rise in price even in the best of times, but lower interest rates act as a shock absorber that mitigates or sometimes even reverses price hikes. Mr. Kerry can campaign away on this Middle Class Squeeze theme, but he can’t make it so. Maybe it’s time for another strategy call with Mr. Clinton.