Mideast Scorecard

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

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In some past wars, it’s been easy to tell who won. In the Six Day War in 1967, Israel liberated the Old City of Jerusalem. In the Cold War, the Soviet communist empire was defeated, the enslaved nations of Eastern Europe liberated, and the captive nations freed. In the Civil War, the slaves were emancipated and the union was kept. In the current war between Israel and Hezbollah, victory is possible and necessary. The military analyst for the Israeli daily Ha’aretz, Ze’ev Schiff, writes that this is a “must win” war for Israel. “Hezbollah and what this terrorist organization symbolizes must be destroyed at any price. This is the only option that Israel has,” he writes.

But what, exactly, constitutes a “win,” that is a question. This is particularly so since Israel has no territorial ambitions in Lebanon. How does one measure the destruction of a terrorist organization, which by its nature is shadowy? And what about Iran and Syria, Hezbollah’s sponsors? They might end up winners even if Israel succeeds in destroying Hezbollah. Here are some yardsticks for judging any outcome:

Israel is winning if it kills the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, or if it gains the return of any of its three captured soldiers. Israel is winning if the Hezbollah rockets that have been landing on its northern cities at the rate of a hundred or so a day finally stop landing, and if the missile attacks do not spread to Tel Aviv or Jerusalem.Israel is winning if Hezbollah and its sponsors do not succeed in attacks on Israeli or Jewish or American targets outside the Middle East.

Syria is winning if it gets Israel to agree to resume negotiations over the disputed Shebaa Farms territory or over the Golan Heights. Or if it wins an agreement, spoken or unspoken, that America and the United Nations won’t pursue the investigation into the assassination of Rafik Hariri, the former prime minister of Lebanon, all the way to its conclusion. Or if it wins official recognition of a “role” in Lebanon by getting status as a party to any ceasefire.

Iran is winning if it escapes any consequences internationally for its sponsorship of Hezbollah’s aggression against Israel. And if it can use the conventional clashes between Israel and Hezbollah successfully to distract the world’s attention from its nuclear program.

What’s a win for America? A win for the country America is arming in this fight, Israel, is a win for America. So is any resolution that shows the terror-sponsoring aggressors, Iran and Syria, that after they attack they wind up in a worse position than before, not a better position. That is the message that President Bush sent to Afghanistan and Iraq after September 11, 2001, and the American mainland hasn’t been hit since. Mr. Bush has been strong so far, saying yesterday, “Our objective is to make sure those who use terrorist tactics are not rewarded.” Those will be words for Secretary Rice to keep in mind as she returns to the Middle East on Sunday.


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