In a recent column headlined “The Metroliner Effect,” the inestimable Michael Barone brought to our attention the news that polls now show President Bush is doing better in New York than he did in 2000. In the six statewide polls taken since Labor Day, Mr. Bush is lagging Senator Kerry by an average of 12 percentage points. In the 2000 election, by comparison, Mr. Bush lost New York to Vice President Gore by 24.3 percentage points.

Some of this may reflect a post-convention bounce for the president that will dissipate as Election Day nears and the convention recedes into memory. We are not predicting here that Mr. Bush will win New York in November. His campaign hasn’t bought much television time here or devoted much energy to building a field organization in the Empire State. All the more dramatic, though, is a swing of a dozen points – in a state like New York, it represents hundreds of thousands of votes. We know liberals who can’t imagine that a single person who voted for Mr. Gore in 2000 would cast a ballot for Mr. Bush in 2004. We hate to puncture their bubble, but mark the poll results.

If Mr. Bush’s gains in New York hold on Election Day, it will be a significant achievement, even if the candidate loses the state. A similar gain over the next four years would make New York a battleground state in the presidential election and, as Mr. Barone argues, it might strengthen the case for the Republicans to nominate in 2008 a candidate such as Rudolph Giuliani, who could carry New York.

Our sense is that much of Mr. Bush’s gains in New York come from strivers who appreciate his tax cuts and from those who lived through the attacks of September 11, 2001, and appreciate his leadership in the war on terrorism.

Another factor is New York’s substantial Jewish community, which is appreciative of Mr. Bush’s support for Israel. When people such as a longtime ally of Senator Schumer’s, James Tisch; a Democratic former mayor of New York, Edward Koch; and a Democratic assemblyman from Boro Park, Dov Hikind, emerge as backers of Mr. Bush, something is going on. The Kerry-Edwards campaign is spending precious campaign dollars running newspaper advertisements in New York Jewish newspapers, hoping to shore up weakening support in a state and a community that Democrats have tended to take for granted.

It’ll be a mark to watch on Election Day – not so much whether Mr. Bush wins or loses New York, but whether he improved on his performance in 2000, and by what margin.