The European Union will today formally open talks with Turkey on accession to the union, one of Ankara’s key foreign-policy aspirations over four decades. Turkish diplomats have long been frustrated by the atavistic anti-Turanian prejudices of some of the more virulent opponents of membership. Such detractors also regard Turkish membership as an American and British free-trading plot to dilute the dirigiste E.U. so dramatically as to make it unworkable on its current basis. If the Turks’ high birthrate continues apace, they will have the preponderant share of the votes in the reformed population-weighted European Council that will come into being under the new European Constitution.

But the mere fact that some European opponents of Turkish membership are motivated by discreditable reasons does not mean that they are necessarily wrong. A case can be made for suggesting that the enemies of Turkey are inadvertently doing the Kemalist republic a good turn. For while Turkey’s accession will change the E.U., it will also change Turkey – and not necessarily for the better. E.U. membership will impose the Social Chapter, the Single Currency, and the Common Agricultural Policy onto what, in Turkey, has been, relative to the new Europe, a free society. The last line of the Turkish pledge of allegiance, “I am industrious” would not seem destined to be a statement of fact for long once that the country enters the club. Nor is it clear why the Turks should have to alter the values of their society to secure membership. The desire to anchor Turkey firmly in the Western camp is admirable, but since when was the abolition of capital punishment the core value of occidental civilization?

Once embarked upon, the process of joining the E.U. also entails considerable peril. To attain membership, the Turkish political classes are even prepared to undermine key aspects of the Kemalist settlement, namely the military’s role as the guardians of the secularism of the state. The National Security Council has appointed its first civilian head, as opposed to a four-star general. The clipping of the armed forces’ wings is one of the key reasons why the Islamist government is pushing Turkey’s membership so hard. It knows that there is a good chance that one of the existing 25 E.U. states – which include such inveterate foes of Turkey as Greece – will veto its entry at the last hurdle. That would not only result in an eastward turn in Turkey’s political orientation, but would take place in a context where institutions that have prevented a full-scale fundamentalist takeover are no longer able to fulfill their historic role. A far easier option would be to join NAFTA: a pure free trading area, with hardly any demands to make. Now that would be a really bold thing for the Bush administration to offer.