Now that the Chinese regime has authorized “non-peaceful means” to deal with the only Chinese province ruled by a democracy, forgive us if we exclaim, “Where’s Jimmy Carter?” We speak of the 39th president who, in one of the most breathtaking betrayals of liberty ever issued from the White House, announced one day in 1979 that he was going to de-recognize the free Chinese government on Taiwan, abrogate the mutual defense pact then existing between it and America, and recognize the communist Chinese camarilla as the only government of the largest nation. To those many who warned that in the long term this courted catastrophe, Mr. Carter responded: “I have paid special attention to ensuring that normalization of relations between the United States and the People’s Republic of China will not jeopardize the well being of the people of Taiwan.”

It looks like we are entering the season when his judgment will be tested. “This is not a war bill,” is the Orwellian way China’s strongman, Wen Jiabao, described the war bill that authorizes the mainland’s military to attack Taiwan if its leaders signal in any way that it seeks national independence. On Monday, the Chinese People’s “Congress” passed nearly unanimously the “anti-secession law” that authorizes “non-peaceful means” to prevent “the ‘Taiwan independence’ forces” if they “should act under any name or by any means to cause the fact of Taiwan’s secession from China, or that major incidents entailing Taiwan’s secession from China should occur, or that possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted.”

It was in the context of this unambiguous threat that Mr. Wen told reporters yesterday, “We do not want foreign interference yet we are not afraid of it.” He allowed that the bill his apparatchiks passed was “by no means targeted against the Taiwanese people.” Leaving aside whether legislation passed by a parliament in a communist dictatorship means all that much, the latest move from the middle kingdom amounts to a gauntlet to President Bush and the Congress of the United States. According to the Pentagon’s latest report on the Chinese military, it has 500 short-range missiles aimed at Taiwan and in 2003 increased its military budget by 11.6%. In July the military launched major sea, air, and land training exercises. The latest threats from the Chinese legislature confirm that a Chinese attack on Taiwan is a real threat.

The muted reaction from the White House yesterday is not encouraging. It can only leave Beijing doubting whether Mr. Bush is really taking their threats against Taiwan seriously. His spokesman, Scott McClellan, said merely that America viewed the anti-secession law as “unfortunate.” He added, “It does not serve the purpose of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.” On Sunday, Secretary Rice said the Chinese bill “raises tensions and it is not necessary or a good thing to raise tensions.” Which will at least earn Ms. Rice the award for the understatement of the year, though the year is young. Better had she noted that it throws into sharp relief the administration’s obligations under the Taiwan Relations Act, which Congress insisted on in 1979 to blunt Mr. Carter’s betrayal.

Among other things the TRA pledges “the United States will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability.” It also states that it is America’s policy to “consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes, a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States” and that America’s decision to formalize diplomatic relations with China “rests upon the expectation that the future of Taiwan will be determined by peaceful means.” One of the remarkable things about the Taiwan Relations Act is that it has never been amended in the generation since it was passed. It remains American law.

The Bush administration has quietly sought to remedy the military imbalance across the straits. In January, Taiwan finalized a purchase of new Hellfire missiles and in the last year the island’s legislature has debated whether to move forward with a new multiyear arms purchase aimed largely at bolstering the country’s missile defense capacity. It’s hard to imagine, though, that arms sales are going to be enough. The rapidity with which the war clouds are scudding suggests that time is running out to rethink our whole policy toward China. America’s restraint appears to have only emboldened China.

It was only 15 months ago that Mr. Bush publicly humiliated Taiwan’s president, Chen Shui-bian, by warning Taiwan’s elected leader – at a press conference with the unelected communist Chinese “prime minister” – to forgo his plans to hold a referendum on Taiwan’s defense posture. Perhaps China took those signals as a sign that America was no longer committed to the defense of Taiwan. In any event, the situation shaping up over the Straits of Formosa is not only a challenge to Mr. Bush but also a test of the Democrats, the party of the president who abandoned Taiwan and the party whose best intellectuals are frantically seeking to maneuver into a leadership position on foreign affairs. Here is an opportunity for them – or someone – to seize the lead in what is certainly one of the most dangerous situations on the planet.