Election Results Might Not Be Known on Election Day Due to Mail-In Voting and Likely Legal Challenges

Since the Covid pandemic, mail-in voting has become more popular nationwide, providing a more convenient way for Americans to cast their ballots. However, the added time it takes to count the votes has raised concerns about the integrity of the election results, as what appears to be the outcome of an election can change over time while more ballots are counted, even though numerous recounts and audits have failed to find evidence of widespread fraud.Because of the mail-in and absentee ballot procedures, it will likely take a few days to know who won the 2024 election, but perhaps shorter than it took in 2020.While many Americans would like to know the results on Election Day, no federal law requires it. The timing of when Americans will know who won the election is largely determined by individual states’ procedures for when election officials can start processing mail-in ballots and counting them.The first step in counting mail-in ballots is processing them, which looks different in every state. In this step, election officials are not counting ballots but ensuring that various security measures are followed, such as verifying signatures, which limits the time spent on Election Day before the votes can be counted.Of the key battleground states that the election will likely hinge on, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and North Carolina start processing ballots ahead of the election. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin start processing ballots on Election Day. The results from mail-in ballots in Arizona and Nevada may come in a bit faster as they can start counting before Election Day. However, they cannot release the vote tallies until the polls are closed. The other five battleground states will not begin counting until Election Day. When the results will be knownThe vice president of law and policy for the Voting Rights Lab, Megan Bellamy, told The New York Sun, “No matter what state you live in, teams of people from both parties work together to ensure accuracy at every step of the voting, counting, and reporting process.“It always takes time for election workers to do this, so we will not know all the results in every election on election night itself. But I think Americans agree that when it comes to counting our ballots, it’s more important to be accurate than fast,” she added. Yet, the wait time could be shorter than in 2020. The director of the Massachusetts Election Data and Science Lab, Charles Stewart, told the Sun that while there will always be “stragglers,” such as provisional ballots, it looks like the number of mail-in ballots cast will be less than in 2020, which would speed up the counting process. There is a chance the vote counting in Pennsylvania, which could be the state that determines the election, becomes a prolonged spectacle with parties fighting over whether to count individual ballots due to a lack of a statewide standard on whether voters can “cure” the ballots. Five of the battleground states let voters “cure” their ballots when election officials notify them of an issue, such as a signature mismatch, so they can correct it and have their vote counted. Wisconsin does not allow for ballot curing. In Pennsylvania, the rules on whether voters can “cure” their ballots vary by county. Last week, the Supreme Court declined to take up a request from the Republican National Committee to ban counties from allowing voters to fix their ballots in the Keystone State, which Mr. Stewart says will likely lead to a lawsuit after Election Day.“This raises the possibility that Pennsylvania may be a Bush v. Gore problem if there is a challenge to the election. How that gets resolved is anyone’s guess, but I’m thinking that this type of challenge will be the meatiest of challenges to be filed in the state,” he said. Already, there has been a flurry of lawsuits seeking to challenge rules governing which ballots are counted. In Michigan, the RNC won a victory when a state court blocked a law that allowed election officials to delay the process of rejecting ballots by labeling them “challenged” instead of “rejected” if a security measure was missing. Meanwhile, in North Carolina, Republicans are seeking to disqualify mail-in ballots that are not sealed in a privacy envelope.While Republican lawsuits are seeking to implement stricter guidelines for whether to reject mail ballots with issues, the percentage of rejected ballots for defects or issues has been relatively low. In 2020, most states had a rejection rate of less than 1 percent. Pennsylvania was an outlier of the seven battleground states, with a rejection rate of 1.29 percent. In 2022, in Arizona, where mail-in voting has become a primary method of casting ballots, 0.4 percent were rejected. Yet, that same year, neighboring Nevada had a rejection rate of 2 percent. With polling averages showing all seven of the key battleground states within a one or two-percentage-point margin in the presidential election, the decisions about which mail ballots were rejected and whether voters had a chance to correct them or not could be ripe territory for lawsuits that prolong the election results. Another issue that threatened to hang over the election was the impact Hurricane Helene, which devastated western North Carolina, could have on voting in the state. However, officials say the election will be safe and secure.The state is relaxing some mail balloting rules for the counties impacted by the storm, such as letting voters drop off ballots at other counties’ election offices. Additionally, voters can request that ballots be sent to temporary housing locations if they were dislocated by the storm. If voters are concerned about whether their ballot was received, they can track the status of it. State officials have also pointed out voters can cast their ballots in person, too, if they previously requested a mail-in ballot. While this has raised concerns about people trying to vote twice, Mr. Stewart told the Sun, “North Carolina has robust record keeping to ensure that you can’t do that. In fact, North Carolina has one of the best systems in the country. If you show up to vote after already requesting a mail ballot, this will be noted. If your ballot hasn’t been received, then your in-person ballot will count. If you ask for a second mail ballot, the first ballot will be canceled, and it won’t be counted if it does get mailed in.”Another area of concern in terms of confidence in the election results is what has been dubbed the “red mirage,” where President Trump seems to be winning a state as the in-person votes — which tend to favor Republicans — are reported. Then, his lead gradually shrinks as the mail ballots are counted, as happened in 2020 when more Democrats voted by mail.That phenomenon, to some extent, may occur this year as well. However, with Trump now urging his supporters to vote by mail, the shift may not be as significant as it was four years ago.

Election Results Might Not Be Known on Election Day Due to Mail-In Voting and Likely Legal Challenges

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