Elon Musk is taking center stage in the first notable election of the second Trump administration, with the world’s richest man both cutting checks to Republicans and serving as a punching bag for Democrats in a race that might determine control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Many view the race as a bellwether for how voters in a critical swing state are reacting to President Trump’s return to the Oval Office. 

On April 1, Wisconsin voters will go to the polls to choose their next state supreme court justice. After 30 years on the bench, one of the court’s members opted against running for a third term, giving conservatives a chance to retake control of the seven-member court. 

While the election is technically nonpartisan, Republicans and Democrats always back their own candidates in the hopes of winning a friend on the court. The Republicans are backing a circuit court judge from the suburbs of Milwaukee, Brad Schimel, who also served for one term as Wisconsin attorney general. The Democratic-aligned candidate is a circuit court just from Madison, Susan Crawford. 

The most important issue at hand in the race is the possibility of redrawing the state’s congressional districts, which currently overwhelmingly favor Republicans. Of the eight districts in Wisconsin, two are heavily Democratic, five went for the GOP by double-digits last year, and one was narrowly won by a Republican. 

When Democrats flipped the court to have four liberal members in 2023, the justices immediately took up a case that challenged the state’s Republican-drawn legislative districts for the state assembly and state senate. The court ultimately sided with the liberal attorneys who brought them, ordering a redrawing of the map that allowed Democrats to pick up ten seats in the state assembly and four in the state senate. 

Now, Democrats are hoping a Justice Crawford could help them do the same at the congressional level, at a time when flipping the House majority to Democrats depends on winning a net of just three seats next year. 

In February, in an email to Democratic donors inviting them to meet with Judge Crawford and the state party chairman, Ben Wikler, it was implied that Judge Crawford would be a reliable vote to change the maps so that they would be more favorable to Democrats. “Winning this race could also result in Democrats being able to win two additional US House seats, half the seats needed to win control of the House in 2026,” the email, which was first reported by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, states. 

At a recent debate with her opponent, Judge Crawford distanced herself from that email, saying she attended the donor reception briefly and did not hear any mention of changing the maps from attendees. She promised to be “fair and impartial” as a member of the state supreme court and that she would not bring a “partisan agenda” to the job.

Judge Crawford’s campaign is relying heavily on the unpopularity of Messrs. Trump and Musk — both of whom are now viewed negatively by a majority of Wisconsinites, according to a new survey from the state’s gold-standard pollster. 

The Marquette Law poll released on March 5 shows that the president is underwater in the state, with a disapproval rating of 51 percent and an approval rating of 48 percent. Mr. Musk fares even poorer, with 53 percent of Wisconsinites viewing him unfavorably and just 41 percent viewing him favorably. Among independents, 58 percent have a negative view of the DOGE chief. 

Mr. Musk has featured prominently in Judge Crawford’s ads as she nears the finish line. Just on Wednesday, the judge released an ad highlighting Mr. Musk’s support for Judge Schimel via his America PAC. That outside group, founded and run by Mr. Musk, has spent more than $6 million in the race so far. Another group to which Mr. Musk has donated, Building America’s Future, has spent more than $4 million to oppose Judge Crawford. 

The Democratic-aligned candidate ties her opponent directly to Mr. Musk, saying that if elected to the state supreme court, Judge Schimel would do his bidding. 

“Elon Musk is trying to buy Schimel a seat on the supreme court, because he knows Schimel always helps his big campaign donors. That’s Brad Schimel, and he’s way too corrupt for the supreme court,” Judge Crawford’s ad states.