Whether it’s this week or May 11, the national state of emergency over Covid will be ending soon. While House Republicans and President Biden disagree on what this will actually mean for Americans, health care analysts say the changes to our health care system will be monumental.

The House on Tuesday was set to vote on a “Pandemic is Over” bill, which would officially end the state of emergency over Covid if enacted.

“The American people have been living under a Covid-19 public health emergency for three years and should not allow President Biden four more months of emergency powers,” Representative Brett Guthrie, a sponsor of the bill, said. 

Although the bill is likely to die in the Democratic Senate and would likely be vetoed by Mr. Biden, the vote has sparked a conversation about what an end to the state of emergency will actually mean. It could drastically change what has become the new status quo. Leaders in Washington, D.C., however, disagree on the exact effects.

Republicans have said lifting the state of emergency will “return power to the people” and end a “perpetual state of emergency and government control,” as Representative Claudia Tenney puts it.

The White House has rebutted these claims, saying the current emergency measures “do not impose mask mandates or vaccine mandates. They do not restrict school or business operations. They do not require the use of any medicines or tests in response to cases of Covid-19.”

The White House has said that ending the state of emergency early would “create wide-ranging chaos and uncertainty throughout the health care system.”

“To be clear, continuation of these emergency declarations until May 11 does not impose any restriction at all on individual conduct with regard to Covid-19,” the White House statement said.

According to the White House, millions of Americans could lose health insurance through Medicaid, states would lose billions of dollars in emergency federal funding, many telehealth services would be left uncovered by insurance, and hospitals and nursing homes could be left shorthanded.

On top of this, the White House claims that ending the public health emergency would result in an end to Title 42, an emergency policy that restricts migration across the southern border. The White House says that, if Title 42 is lifted, this would “result in a substantial additional inflow of migrants at the Southwest border.”

The Department of Education has said that the suspension of payments on federal student debt and the president’s debt relief program will not be affected by the end of the emergency, even though it was the legal basis for these measures in the first place.

An attorney at Nixon Peabody LLP, Justin Pfeiffer, told the Sun that many of the services — particularly telehealth services — that people have grown accustomed to over the past three years are going to change.

“The legal ramifications of everything that’s been done over the course of the public health emergency have been vast,” Mr. Pfeiffer said. “If you’re a provider, there have been certain flexibilities that have been provided that are going to end.”

These flexibilities include things like substituting in-person visits with telehealth visits or substituting audiovisual telehealth visits with audio-only telehealth visits.

At the state level, Mr. Pfeiffer said, “the ending of it will have a significant impact on the safety net.” Federal money for Medicare and Medicaid in the states will decrease, and provisions expanding enrollment or allowing people not to be de-enrolled will end.

The Kaiser Family Foundation has created a guide on what changes will take place in health care when the state of emergency is ended. The changes will vary from state to state, but those insured through both public and private insurance will see differences.

For Medicare enrollees, Covid tests and testing-related services will no longer be available at no cost, though oral antiviral drugs will still be covered.

Medicare recipients will, however, continue to have their pandemic-era telehealth coverage through December 31, 2024, as will Medicaid and CHIP recipients. For Medicaid and Children’s Health Insurance enrollees, coverage for at-home Covid treatment and testing will no longer be free of charge for patients, beginning shortly after the public health emergency ends.

For those with private insurance, insurers will no longer be required to cover Covid tests, vaccines, or treatments at no cost to patients, and insurers will be allowed to change the requirements for future Covid coverage.