Even With Inflation Here To Stay, Biden Won’t Stop Spending

The Federal Reserve says it’s changed its policies, but there’s no real evidence of that, just talk.

AP/Pablo Martinez Monsivais
The U.S. Federal Reserve. AP/Pablo Martinez Monsivais

There was no letup in today’s CPI inflation report. While gasoline prices were down in April before bobbing back up in May, the overall CPI came in 8.3 percent year over year. It’s still the fastest pace in nearly 40 years. Not good. 

In the companion report, real worker wages continued to decline. By the way, over the past 3 months, the CPI increased nearly 10 percent at an annual rate. When the three-month changes faster than the 12-month, it’s a warning sign for future inflation trends.

Some of the other lowlights in today’s report: food prices up 12 percent over the past three months and 9.4 percent over the past year. All annualized. Services prices are booming 8 percent over the past three months — that includes rising rents. Electricity prices are up 11 percent over the past year.

My point here is that the virulent inflation we are experiencing is not just limited to a few components surrounding energy. These are broad-based, all across the board. In fact, of 95 categories that cover nearly the entire CPI index, two-thirds of them are rising above 6 percent, according to a Wall Street economist, Conrad DeQuadros.

So, blaming Vladimir Putin, or a pandemic that hasn’t been an economic problem in just about a year, or successful businesses, or rich people, or poultry companies, or “ultra-MAGA,” or Senator Scott just utterly fails the smell test. That’s President Biden’s big problem.

Then he went on to say yesterday that federal spending is not the problem. The trouble is, almost no one in the country agrees with that. It defies common sense. He’s already spent more than $3 trillion in his first year. Now he wants to spend more.

Childcare, eldercare, EV purchases, aid to farmers, homebuilding, green energy, subsidies for windmills and solar panels: Guess it wouldn’t be a real Biden speech if we didn’t have even more money for the Green New Deal. 

The inflation reality, though, is here to stay. It’s going to last several more years, and it may well get worse before it gets any better.

Mr. Biden won’t stop spending. His White House won’t let up on the most restrictive environmental review and permitting policies in history. So, not only is he going to keep feeding more excess cash into the economy, but he’s going to continue to thwart oil and gas production, LNG exports, pipelines, and even roads, bridges, and highways. Even wind turbines and solar projects won’t meet the new NEPA permitting restrictions.

So, think of it this way: Mr. Biden wants to keep injecting more cash to increase demand across the economy and at the same time he is restricting production of goods and services.

In fact, it’s not only environmental restrictions. He still wants to raise taxes, 36 of them — 11 aimed at fossil fuel companies.

So what we have is rising demand chasing shrinking supply, which causes higher prices and leads to inflation. There’s one more crucial piece to this puzzle: The Federal Reserve, which bought Mr. Biden’s deficit spending and borrowing, monetized the fiscal rampage. It says it has changed its policies, but there’s no real evidence of that, just talk. 

Traditionally, curbing inflation requires a Fed target rate that lands above the inflation rate. Right now, it’s under 1 percent. And even with a couple of half-point increases, it’s still going to be way below inflation. Also, the Fed is not taking excess cash out of the economy.

It has not been shrinking its balance sheet, called the monetary base. It has not yet taken away the punchbowl. So these are the problems.

You know what’s an even more important big-picture point? We are witnessing the collapse of the radical progressive agenda, what Newt Gingrich calls “big government socialism.” In some places it’s called “modern monetary theory.” Uncle Sam can spend as much as he wants, the Fed can print as much money as it wants, the central planners can regulate as much as they want, and we’ll all live happily ever after. Yet that “live happily ever after” part is not coming true. 

The public is in full rebellion. The progressive agenda has delivered inflation but not the goods and real wages. Modern monetary theory is in full retreat.

Mr. Biden’s economic performance is upside down, by something like two-to-one against him, and he still won’t change. No new staff. No new policies. He’s just out there stonewalling and blaming Vladimir Putin and something called “ultra-MAGA.” 

Uncle Joe, you need to do something different. But since you won’t, the voters are going to do it for you. The cavalry is coming.

From Mr. Kudlow’s broadcast on Fox Business News.


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