The U.S. Senate contest in North Carolina Senate is tightening and Democratic money is flooding in, but Tar Heel State political observers say the “white whale” of a seat may elude the party once again — even with the North Carolina GOP being dragged down by the lieutenant governor.

The competition is expected to be fierce, with both candidates — the chief justice of the state supreme court, Cheri Beasly, a Democrat, and Congressman Ted Budd, a Republican — within striking distance of victory. According to July polling from PEM Management Corporation, Ms. Beasly enjoys a three-point lead; the Trafalgar Group in June put Mr. Budd about three points ahead.

Behind the scenes, Ms. Beasly enjoys a considerable advantage, at least financially: She has just more than $4.8 million at her disposal, while Mr. Budd has about $1.7 million in his warchest.

Ms. Beasly is likely to need all the money she can get, as despite close calls the Senate seat has long evaded Democratic control. Currently held by Senator Burr, a Republican, the seat flipped parties every six years between 1974 and 2008, when Mr. Burr was first elected.

Judging from the amount of money flowing into Ms. Beasly’s campaign, it’s clear that Democrats have marked 2022 as their chance to finally wrest control of the seat from the GOP. With Mr. Burr retiring, it’s probably the best chance they’ve had in decades.

The associate editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, John Coleman, however, is warning that $4.8 million might not be enough to turn the seat blue — at least not in 2022.

Mr. Coleman, a North Carolina native, is predicting a Republican victory in November, telling the Sun that the seat “leans Republican, and that’s where we still have it.”

“Ted Budd is the exact type of generic conservative Republican that has done well in the state in the past,” Mr. Coleman said. “Point being, it’s been a white whale for the Democrats.”

While Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Decision Desk HQ, and the Cook Political Report all agree that Mr. Budd is likely to be the next senator from North Carolina, Mr. Coleman does see one person who could drag the GOP candidate down — Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson.

Mr. Robinson is the Republican second-in-command in Governor Cooper’s Democratic administration. In North Carolina, the governor and the lieutenant governor are elected separately.

Democrats first attacked the connection to Mr. Robinson after the lieutenant governor endorsed Mr. Budd for Senate in April, and have since started running ads emphasizing the point.

Mr. Coleman argues that while Democrats are putting their best foot forward with Ms. Beasly, Republicans have been forced to answer for the lieutenant governor. That’s because Mr. Robinson has incited outrage for a number of inflammatory comments, including saying that once a woman is pregnant, “it’s not your body anymore, it’s y’all’s body … and, yes, that includes the daddy.”

Mr. Robinson has also refused to apologize for comments he made about the movie “Black Panther.” He claimed it was “created by an agnostic Jew and put to film by [a] satanic Marxist,” Jewish Insider reports. He then claimed that the movie “was only created to pull the shekels out of your Schvartze pockets.”

Schvartze is a derogatory Yiddish term for a Black person. 

Mr. Robinson’s intrusion into the Senate race has made for a particularly difficult campaign season for the North Carolina GOP.

Mr. Coleman argues that Mr. Budd remains the favorite despite Mr. Robinson’s influence in the state and Democratic attacks tying the two together.

“Especially in a year like 2022, when the national winds aren’t blowing in the Democrats’ favor, it is likely to go Republican,” he tells the Sun.