Although we’re barely into 2005, already we’re seeing some remarkable evidence that big-time change is afoot. First, the news from Bordeaux.

The Conseil Interprofessionnel du Vin de Bordeaux, or CIVB, a government-authorized regulatory agency, announced some of the most catastrophic export figures in living memory. In the first three quarters of 2004, the CIVB reported that overall exports were down a not-too-bad 10%. However, the value of those exports was down 24%.

But Bordeaux’s woes are far worse than that seemingly small blip. More tellingly, exports to America were down a whacking 35% in volume and 59% in value. Before you leap to conclusions about why, keep in mind that anti-French sentiment excited by the Iraq war is only marginally, if at all, involved. French wine sales in America have been declining for years. This is just the latest (sharp) blow.

Further proof of Bordeaux’s not-so-noble rot is found in the fact that exports to Great Britain – a stalwart Bordeaux market for centuries – are similarly bleak. Sales to Britain are down by 21% in volume and 33% in value. Again, this is part of a long-term pattern. Australia now outsells France in the British market.

These figures may surprise American Bordeaux fanciers, who certainly aren’t seeing any sharp declines in the prices of Bordeaux such as Chateau Lafite-Rothschild or Chateau Margaux. These so-called classed growths, although they garner the lion’s share of Bordeaux publicity, account for only a tiny fraction of the region’s vast production of 66 million cases of wine a year. That’s slightly more than one-third of California’s entire yearly production, which is pretty impressive considering that Bordeaux is a relatively small region.

So what’s happening here? If it isn’t anti-French sentiment – always a tempting explanation – why is Bordeaux crashing? The answer is as simple as it is surprising: competition. For the first time in the centuries-old history of fine wine, France is facing real competition. And it’s losing. Bordeaux, as France’s biggest fine-wine region, is feeling it first and hardest. And will likely feel it longest, too. (The Champagne region, on the other hand, is doing just fine.)

The problem, you see, is that Bordeaux grows cabernet sauvignon and merlot. And so does everyone else it seems: Australia, California, Italy, Chile, Argentina, Romania, Spain, Washington, and New Zealand, among others. And they do it well. And if not well, then more cheaply.

So Bordeaux is caught in a bind. Its low-priced wines simply aren’t good enough. Australia and Chile and California are beating the bejesus out of Bordeaux at the low end. At the high end, Bordeaux more than holds its own. It rules. The famous classed growth chateaux still retain their luster. But they’re no longer seen as unique.

Most American cabernet fans long ago recognized that the best California cabernets are easily the equals of the best red Bordeaux. And it won’t be long before Spanish, Italian, and Australian cabernets will receive similar recognition. Where once Bordeaux had a monopoly, now it’s increasingly in a commodity market. And it’s not equipped to compete – culturally, economically, or psychologically – at least not until some major upheavals occur on everything from overly restrictive appellation regulations to modernizing label designs. This is true everywhere in France, not just Bordeaux.

In the meantime, other winegrowing areas are romping to victory. Australia’s exports continue to grow, notably in Canada, New Zealand, and Great Britain. The Australian Bureau of Statistics, a government agency, recently reported that wine exports surged 32% over the previous year. Chile’s wine exports are similarly buoyant, with export volume and value up 19% and 25% respectively.

California is seeing its own wine exports – never a strong suit in the past – increase smartly, doubtless aided by the weak dollar. According to Joe Rollo, director of the international department of the San Francisco-based Wine Institute, an industry trade organization, California wine exports to Great Britain accounted for 12% of British wine sales in 2003. “And it’ll probably move up at least another percentage point when we see the 2004 figures,” he said.

What’s the best-selling California wine export in the British market, you ask? Blossom Hill, a jug wine owned by British drinks giant Diageo. Gallo is second.

Mr. Rollo submits that Bordeaux’s export woes are driven more by retailer choices than consumer demand. “It’s retailers shaping the selection,” he said. “Most consumers really don’t know where their wine is coming from. And they probably don’t care either,” he added.

Still, consumers do seem to know what they want – and what they don’t. Just ask a Bordeaux winegrower.

HERE’S THE DEAL

MENCIA “BIERZO” 2003, DOMINIO DE TARES Adding to Bordeaux’s malaise is the uncomfortable fact that Spain, long a sleeping wine giant, is not merely waking up, but doing vigorous wine calisthenics. Many people are surprised to learn that Spain – not France or Italy has more land planted to vines than any other in the world. However, the vine density is low, so all those vineyards don’t yield as much wine overall as France or Italy. Still, Spain is a heavyweight wine contender by anyone’s estimation.

Proof is found in this exceptional red wine from the Bierzo district of northwestern Spain. Made 100% from an indigenous red grape variety called mencia, this is an eye-opening red wine. Honestly, I’d never even heard of the mencia grape. Turns out that mencia is a local variety long cultivated by the area’s Cistercian monks, the same wine-savvy group that created the great wines of Burgundy, Champagne, the Loire, Mosel-Saar-Ruwer, Rheingau, and Rheinpfalz.

Showing just how recently, and successfully, Spain is waking up, consider that the producer of this wine, Dominio de Tares, began in 2000. Yet their 2001 vintage landed a spot on Wine Spectator magazine’s Top 100 list. Not bad for a rookie.

This brand-new 2003 bottling is superb red wine, plumped with a distinctive red cherry taste and scent allied with a mineral savor said to be particular to the mencia grape variety. What’s more, the wine is mercifully free of intrusive oakiness, which is a rare blessing in Spanish wines.

Mencia 2003 from Dominio de Tares is original-tasting, beautifully made red wine that’s destined for all sorts of red meats (lamb would be especially good), roast chicken, or just a baked potato lavished with butter and coarse sea salt. Indeed, it’s good enough to make you forget – if only temporarily – about that other red wine region across the Pyrenees. $18.