October has become a nervewracking month for chefs. Gourmet magazine listed its top 50 restaurants in the country in its October issue, and the second Michelin guide to New York City will be released later this month. And the populist Zagat Survey’s 2007 New York City Restaurants guide, which covers many more restaurants than the others combined, makes it national debut today. “You take them all seriously,” chef Bill Telepan said last weekend, “and hope for the best.”

The guide consolidates information from 31,604 surveys filed by regular folks who receive a copy of the guide in return for their participation. “When the average person is having a nice time at your restaurant, you feel good,” Mr. Telepan said. He has been closely following online reviews of his restaurant, Telepan, at Zagat.com, and said he has been hoping for a good review. “It’s my first restaurant by myself,” he said. “It’s a totally important piece.” He can breathe a sigh of relief today, since Telepan received the distinction of Top Newcomer. It is followed by the Orchard, Ureña, and A Voce.

“It’s like the night before Christmas, when you are anticipating whether or not you will get good presents,” chef Eric Ripert said on Friday afternoon. His usual Zagat-day routine is to head to the newsstand early in the morning to buy all the papers. “When it’s good news,” he said, “I wake up every one from Le Bernardin whose numbers I have in my phone.” Good news, as usual, Mr. Ripert: Le Bernardin is no. 1 for food and no. 3 on the Most Popular list.

“We’ve been at the top so long, it’s a little nail-biting,” chef Michael Romano said a few days ago. “We’ll have someone waiting at the door of Barnes & Noble.” His Union Square Café has been at or near the top of Zagat’s Most Popular list for a decade. There’re no surprises on that list this year: Gramercy Tavern is number one, with Union Square Café second. The two Danny Meyer–owned restaurants have been ranked nos. 1 and 2 since 2003. “If we have to lose to somebody, I’m glad it’s Gramercy,” Mr. Romano said. “It feels better because it’s family.”

That perpetual dominance of the same few restaurants irks some observers, who complain the Zagat Most Popular list rewards restaurants that are long-time standbys, rather than outstanding but less established spots. Once a restaurant builds a fan base and enters the list, it rarely drops off. Locals — and especially tourists — flock there, already convinced by the rating that “everyone” loves the place, and in return, give it a high rating. Steven Shaw wrote of this circularity in a 2000 article for Commentary magazine titled “The Zagat Effect.” “It is a simple but distorting truth,” he concluded, “that people tend to prefer the restaurants they already frequent.” And this year’s list is typically free of surprises: Nine of the top 10 Most Popular restaurants were on the same list last year. But thousands still buy the book — the company estimates that more than 650,000 copies will be sold this year —and they dine accordingly. That means chefs pay attention.

In addition to the listings, Zagat provides a comprehensive look at the current restaurant landscape. It notes the number of openings (222) and closings (102), average tip (which increased to 18.9%), and average meal price (which increased 5% to $39.43). New additions to the 2007 book include reusable stickon tabs to flag listings with notes like “must try” and “never again,” and two maps: one for key newcomers, and a color foldout of the 50 top favorites.

The 2007 survey went to press September 18, so the listings are current. Michael Lomonaco’s Porter House, which opened just two weeks ago in the Time Warner Center, is included on the list — though it is too new to be ranked.

The books are embargoed, so chefs find out the results the same time as everyone else. But Mr. Romano was once lucky enough to see a guide early: “There was one time where someone saw the cartons of books in a store and managed to get one the day before,” he said. But in 28 years of surveys in more than 70 markets, Zagat has never had a serious information leak.

“Of course I am eager to see the results, and of course, I want to know before anyone else!” chef Daniel Boulud said Monday evening. “But at the end of the day, it’s what we do for our guests that matters most.That does not change from the day before we get the results to the day after we get them.” Mr. Boulud’s guests at Daniel this evening will dine in the year’s no. 1 spot for décor and no. 8 on the Most Popular list.

Daniel also did well in Gourmet’s list. It is one of four New York City restaurants in the top 10, along with Per Se, Masa, and Le Bernardin. The list, published every five years, was kept under wraps until it arrived in subscriber’s mailboxes, then the Internet, and finally newsstands September 26th.

The Michelin Guide keeps the contents and stars of their guidebooks in-house until the release date, when the information is disseminated en masse via newswire services. When the French tire company published its first San Francisco Guide last week, chef Thomas Keller (of Per Se and Napa Valley’s French Laundry) became only the second chef to run two threestar restaurants. The next New York guide will determine if he stays that way.

The good news for nervous chefs is that no one list has the final say. “These days, there are so many information sources, from guide books to newspapers and magazines, not to mention the bloggers,” Mr. Boulud said. “Each has its own slant, strength, and audience. So you are no longer waiting for just one to come out. It’s more like a steady stream.”