The beginning of a new year always gives rise to contemplative thoughts. Many columnists like to be predictive. I used to do that, too, but after several decades of wine writing I discovered that my predictive ability is nil.

Indeed, that very thought leads me to what might be called “New Year’s Truths.” It’s a variation on “what I learned on my summer vacation,” only in this case I’ll attempt to squeeze what I consider to be hard-won truths from the wine drinking and wine-writing trenches.

For example:

Prices for Great Wines Will Always Go Up I learned this the hard way. Back when 20 bucks was not casual money, I wishfully thought that, like an aggressive hedge fund manager, I could wait for the wine’s price to slide and then I’d pounce. But I discovered, to my dismay that, unlike the prices for, say, large screen plasma TVs, the prices never did slide. Quite the opposite: They went up.

So here’s Wine Truth #1: If it’s a great wine, and it’s just been released and you want it, you’d better get it. The price will never go down. If anything, it very likely will go up.

If You’re Smart, You Can Buy Wine Maturity at a Discount This may seem a contradiction to Wine Truth #1, but allow me to explain. As everyone knows, the latest vintage is always the greatest. Wine merchants and wine writers are breathless with you-gotta-have-it prose. “This is the greatest version of Chateau Splendide I have ever tasted,” goes the prose. You feel that if you do not buy the wine you will miss out on a life-changing event.

But then – poof! – the hype bubble bursts. Usually, the wine has sold out and both merchants and wine writers are on to the next you-gotta-have-it titillation. What happens next is that the wine remains unavailable – or is offered at a price premium by those seeking a fast-buck flip – for several years. After, say, five or seven years, everybody has forgotten the supposedly once-in-a-lifetime greatness of the wine. Inevitably another such vintage comes along to snatch away the crown.

For example, we’re seeing this right now with the much hyped 2001 vintage in Sauternes. Is it a great vintage? Sure it is. But there were other great years, such as the now mature 1983 vintage – which were comparably hyped in their day.

This is where Wine Truth #1 applies. Since the price of great wines always goes up, the perceived value of a wine is based on its current market value. What seemed steep 10 years ago now looks like a bargain.

Right now, if you want to buy the 2001 Chateau Rieussec Sauternes – which was given 100 points by Wine Spectator and 99 points by Robert M. Parker Jr.’s. Wine Advocate – you can expect to pay between $135 and $200 a bottle (D. Sokolin at the low and Park Avenue Liquor at the high end). The 2001 will not be mature for at least a decade.

But if you log on to www.winesearcher.com and look for Chateau Rieussec 1983, which is a great wine and now fully mature, you will discover that Park Avenue Liquor has it for $140 a bottle, which is 60 bucks less than the brand-new 2001 and you get more than two decades of age on it. (Wine Spectator gave it 94 points back in 1988, calling it “a knockout.”)

The Greatest Pleasure in Wine Comes From a Deal If I’ve learned anything about wine, it’s that the wines I’ve enjoyed the most are those that cost me relatively little. Now I’m not by nature either frugal or cheap. And I’ve long since learned that for really good wine you have to step up to the plate (see Truth #1).

That said, I’ve also learned something else: Near great wines are more satisfying than great ones. Partly this is a pocketbook issue. And partly it’s a function of expectations. The money side is easily understood. Everyone knows you always pay a premium for the very best of anything.

But right below that exalted level is a pool of prospects that, for whatever reason, didn’t quite get the huzzahs. It’s usually an inscrutable matter of a few points. Believe me, the price difference between a wine that scores 88 points and another than gets 90 points is a lot more than a lousy two-point spread would suggest.

So I buy the 88-point wines. Often they’re better than the 90-pointers. How can that be? It’s easy. Usually the 90-pointers are oakier and more accessible. Think low-cut dress versus buttoned-up and you’ve got it. At a big tasting, guess which wines get noticed?

So this year, you might think about buying smart. Do pursue the wines of your dreams. But remember: There’s always another vintage. You can always “backfill.” And not least, there’s always a deal. Watch this space.