After America Admits It Lacks for a Plan To Confront a Dual Offensive, Are Russia and China Starting To Coordinate?

In testimony to Congress in April, the commander of America’s strategic forces, Admiral Charles Richard, warned that the United States might well face a two–front offensive if Russia were to make a move on Eastern Europe and Communist China were to attack Taiwan. Admiral Richard testified that the U.S. has no contingency plans for how to confront such a dual offensive.No plans, indeed. As Russia works in concert with Belarus to wage a hybrid war in Eastern Europe and as Beijing advances its territorial claims in Taiwan and along its border regions, the Biden administration appears flummoxed and ill-equipped. Could it be that, aware of this professed weakness, the two countries have coordinated their efforts?Despite a history of acrimony punctured by close cooperation, including tensions that abide, Beijing and Moscow have long been aligned in their desire to challenge Western liberalism. Meeting in Rome last month, Chinese and Russian officials reaffirmed their mutual opposition to “false democracy,” and their desire to challenge “small circles” — a pointed reference to the pact among Australia, the U.K, and the U.S. and “the Quad” of America, Australia, India, and Japan.Russia and Communist China have this year expanded the scope and frequency of their joint military and strategic exercises. Exercises held in China’s Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region in August, for instance, were clearly intended to simulate combat against America and its allies. Sino-Russian economic and technological cooperation, though asymmetric, is robust — and criticism of each other’s more questionable exploits, present affairs included, is kept mum.So it is not inconceivable that, sensing American weakness, Beijing and Moscow have together decided the moment is ripe to sow chaos to advance their aims. In Europe, the Russian strongman, Vladimir Putin, has engineered an energy crisis over Nord Stream 2 and a humanitarian crisis on the Polish–Belarusian border and is fanning the flames of a looming conflict in the Balkans. Meanwhile, early trials of Russian anti-satellite weapons test America’s willingness to respond to hard power provocations.Moscow’s apparent tactic is to distract and weaken European powers, leaving them with little appetite to assist Ukraine in the event of a Russian offensive. Over the weekend in Kiev, President Zelensky warned that the Russians have massed 100,000 troops near its border. Taking Ukraine is, bear in mind, a centerpiece of Mr. Putin’s foreign policy agenda.All the while, the Biden administration is consumed by Beijing’s empty overtures on climate change and global health, and summits ostensibly designed to achieve little beyond boosting the domestic persona of China’s party boss, Xi Jinping. After Monday’s virtual summit, images in China’s state-run press were of a grinning Mr. Biden seemingly more eager to engage with Mr. Xi than Mr. Xi with Mr. Biden.Though likely insignificant for American audiences, such nuance matters greatly in Communist China. Emboldened by the proceedings of the Sixth Plenum, Mr. Xi has again enticed Mr. Biden into dialogue for Mr. Xi’s, and dialogue’s sake, all the while advancing the Mao Zedong wannabe’s own policy agenda.It may well be but a coincidence that Moscow and Beijing are simultaneously acting on their hawkish proclivities. Then again, it would not be the first time the two nations have moved in lockstep. With the West overall unwilling and, per Admiral Richard, unable, to respond, could this be the moment that our two major adversaries have been anticipating? More importantly, should they succeed in their exploits, what awaits Western liberalism?________Ms. Gadzala-Tirziu is a foreign policy analyst, political writer, and university lecturer in international relations. @awgadzala.

After America Admits It Lacks for a Plan To Confront a Dual Offensive, Are Russia and China Starting To Coordinate?

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