America Pressured To Aid Failing Government in Iraq
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

WASHINGTON — As Iraq’s government compiles a record of failure, the Bush administration is under growing pressure to intervene to rearrange Baghdad’s dysfunctional political order, or even install a new leadership.
Publicly, administration officials say they remain committed to Prime Minister al-Maliki, even though after a year in office, his elected government has failed to complete any important steps toward political reconciliation — the legislative “benchmarks” sought by American officials.
But privately, some American officials acknowledge that the congressional clamor to find another approach will increase sharply as the months pass and no progress is made toward tamping down sectarian violence, bringing more minority Sunnis into the government, and dividing up the nation’s oil resources fairly.
Intervention “is the eternal temptation for the Americans,” said one American official, who spoke on condition of anonymity when discussing internal deliberations. “As we get closer and closer to the fall, and the benchmarks are not met … there will be a growing appeal to the idea that if we can replace the top guy, we can get back on track.”
Although American officials vow not to meddle in the government they helped to create, they have brought their influence to bear again and again, including in Mr. Maliki’s selection as prime minister in early 2006. In January of this year, top American officials considered, and narrowly rejected, a proposal to try to reorganize the fractious political order around a new moderate coalition.
Americans could spur change through a multitude of diplomatic channels and could use their influence with other Iraqi groups and leaders to shake up the political order in Baghdad. For instance, Washington could encourage a parliamentary no-confidence vote on Mr. Maliki, then quietly work a new coalition to choose a leader to their liking, analysts said.
Many Iraqis, as well as Arabs from neighboring states, are convinced that an American move is only a matter of time, given the political paralysis in Baghdad. One sign of the rising expectations is that two Iraqi political groups are trying to position themselves to win American backing as a replacement government, officials said.
A party headed by former interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, with quiet backing from Saudis, Egyptians, and Persian Gulf emirates, has been seeking allies among Iraqi groups and in Washington, American officials said. Hoping to build support, Mr. Allawi’s allies from neighboring countries tried to arrange for him to attend the high-level meeting on Iraq in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el Sheik this month. The plan was abandoned when Mr. Maliki threatened to refuse to take part if his would-be successor was there as well.
Meanwhile, the party long known as the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, the largest Shiite Muslim faction, has been changing its image to make itself appear more in the mainstream — “more presentable,” said the American official. In one such sign, the group announced recently that it was dropping the word “revolution” from its name. It is now known as the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council.
Congressional pressure on the White House is coming from both parties, and is growing. Although Republican lawmakers have been reluctant to criticize President Bush’s troop buildup strategy, they have eagerly expressed their chagrin at Mr. Maliki’s government.
“The Iraqi government needs to understand that they’re running out of time to get their part of the job done,” the Senate minority leader, Senator McConnell, a Republican from Kentucky, said.
Other Iraqi leaders have long had admirers within the American government. Mr. Allawi, a secular Shiite with strong ties to Sunnis, has had advocates in the CIA and the State Department. Mr. Allawi’s transitional government, installed under strong pressure from America, was often accused of corruption, and lost popularity with both Shiites and Sunnis because of his support of American-led military action in Najaf and Fallujah.
When Mr. Allawi first ran for prime minister, in 2005, some officials urged that the administration make a special effort to help his cause, an idea that was shot down by top officials. In the end, he received only 14% of the vote.
Vice President Adel Abdul Mehdi, a French-trained economist and a top Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council official, continues to have supporters in Washington, including a senior National Security Council aide who recently resigned her post overseeing Iraq policy for the White House, Meghan O’Sullivan.
Since January, when the administration rejected the proposal to try to form a new governing coalition, many officials have taken a more cautious view. They fear that American pressure could alienate Iraqis and undermine Bush administration claims to support democracy, while not delivering results.
Many outside analysts warn against intervening and question the value of new leadership during a period of crisis.
“There is going to be a constant temptation to try to rearrange the government. But fundamentally, institutions are what matter,” a vice president at American Enterprise Institute, a Washington institute with ties to the White House, Danielle Pletka, said. “One guy does not a success make.”
Mr. Maliki is not a “transcendent, charismatic figure,” the president and chief executive of the Henry L. Stimson Center, a Washington think tank, Ellen Laipson, said. “But there”s no guarantee that if we changed parties we’d get something we liked.”
The current American approach is to try to pressure and cajole the Maliki government to adopt the key measures aimed at political reconciliation. American objectives include one law that divides oil revenues among the ethnic and sectarian groups, and another that would help one-time members of Saddam Hussein’s banned Baath Party to re-enter government.
A parade of American officials, including Vice President Cheney, has visited recently with Mr. Maliki. On his stop in Iraq early this month, Mr. Cheney “gathered [Iraqi officials] in his embassy and told them, ‘Very frankly, you have to do something,'” a Kurdish lawmaker, Mahmoud Othman, said. “‘If you don’t deliver, we can’t defend you.'” So far, the American strategy has yielded few results. In February, American officials declared that victory was at hand on the oil law. But since then, progress has ground nearly to a halt.
Last week, in a conference call, an American official in Baghdad shocked diplomats at the State Department’s Foggy Bottom headquarters in Washington with a gloomy status report on the oil law. A Washington diplomat, taken aback, blurted, “What do you mean? We’ve been claiming it as a success. The president’s been lauding it,” recalled one person who was there.
In one limited attempt at intervention, American officials have pushed a proposal to shift the distribution of power in the country. They want Mr. Maliki to work on major decisions with Iraq’s presidency council, comprising three officials whom Washington considers constructive and moderate: President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd; Vice President Abdul Mehdi, a Shiite; and Vice President Tariq Hashemi, a Sunni.
Mr. Maliki at first resisted, seeing the proposal as an infringement on his powers. But lately, American officials said, he has been more open to the idea.
The Americans also could shape a new government without leaving fingerprints, analysts said.
The Bush administration could quietly apply its influence in choosing a new prime minister if Mr. Maliki’s government fell as the result of a no-confidence vote. Under parliamentary rules, only 50 lawmakers are needed to call such a vote. The government falls if it does not win support from half of the 275 members of the body.
The Al Fadila al Islamiya party and the bloc led by Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr already have left Mr. Maliki’s coalition this year.
“If any further deputies were to desert him, it is hard to see how Maliki could win a vote of no confidence,” an Iraq expert at the University of Michigan, Juan R. Cole, said.
Still, organizing a new government would probably take months, time that the Bush administration does not really have. And to hope that the next prime minister is a success requires a good deal of optimism.