Annan to Iran’s Rescue

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There is no military option on Iran, some say, because Tehran learned a lesson from the 1981 Israeli attack on Osirak, Iraq. Turtle Bay diplomats will soon be abuzz with activity that they hope will convince the mullahs – who are now intent on reaching nuclear parity with what they consider declining Western powers – to reverse course.


But if last week is any indication, the diplomatic route is not a particularly attractive option, either. With Secretary-General Annan stopping just short of declaring he is ready to do business with President Ahmadinejad, others talking about imposing sanctions are in for a bumpy ride.


The renewed diplomatic vigor started well enough, with well-orchestrated press conferences in Berlin and Washington. In the last 2 1/2 years, France, Germany, and Britain led an American backed effort to get Iran to quit its quest for atomic weapons. Now both the Bush administration and the Europeans have said those efforts have reached a dead end.


Now that Tehran has reneged on past promises by removing seals placed at Iranian nuclear facilities by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the time has come to refer the issue to the Security Council, foreign ministers on both sides of the Atlantic announced.


The first indication that this shiny new car of diplomatic unity may hide some problems under its hood came after a Turtle Bay luncheon hosted Thursday by Mr. Annan and attended by the ambassadors of the 15 member states of the Security Council.


Mr. Annan had just spoken with an Iranian nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, for 40 minutes, he told reporters afterwards, and Mr. Larijani told him that Tehran was ready to return to negotiations. After blatantly going back on their agreed obligations, the Iranians wanted new conditions, and Mr. Annan was willing to advocate for them.


New negotiations will have to be conducted “within a time frame,” Mr. Annan said Mr. Larijani told him, because “the last time, they did it for 2 1/2 years, and no result.” (Mr. Ahmadinejad repeated that same gripe several times in his Tehran press conference on Saturday.)


Mr. Annan contradicted the Europeans and Americans, who had pushed for a change of venue from Vienna, where the IAEA is charged with monitoring Iran’s nuclear activity, to New York, where the Security Council can take measures to punish Iranian intransigence.


Not yet, Mr. Annan said. “I think we should try and resolve it, if possible, in the IAEA context,” he told reporters, later offering his “good offices” to help mediate among all sides.


Instead, the Europeans and Americans invited themselves to Mr. Annan’s office to what one diplomat present told me was a “tongue-lashing” by the secretary-general.


Discredited in his final year in office, Mr. Annan is in no position to defy Washington, and certainly not the European leaders. But Russia, whose ambassador was present at that late Thursday Turtle Bay meeting, might be interested in using him as a mediator.


The offer to enrich uranium for the Iranians in Russia, which was rejected by the mullahs, could soon come back to the table. The opportunity to become the savior of the situation – and make some money in the process – must be attractive for those in President Putin’s inner circle. Mr. Annan, who would jump on any solution short of muscular diplomacy or use of power, will be there at the ready.


Then there is oil-hungry China, which would do anything to avoid a clash with America on a council resolution threatening sanctions against Iran, but might use its veto power anyway. Mr. Annan’s mediation could come to Beijing’s rescue as well, assuring a certain Security Council impasse.


While talking up diplomacy, Washington has steadfastly refused to take the military option off the table. British Foreign Minister Jack Straw, however, said last week that “nobody is talking” about it.


But some are. According to Britain’s Sunday Times, the air force base at Hatzerim, Israel, in concert with elite ground units elsewhere, is as full of activities and plans for possible strikes in Iran as Turtle Bay is for diplomacy. The American military also is said to be working on viable solutions to the challenges presented by Iran’s decentralized and deeply buried nuclear facilities.


With the help of Mr. Annan and its other allies, Tehran most likely feels unconcerned about the new diplomatic threats. Any sane policy must not only include a backup military option, but also let the mullahs know it exists.


The New York Sun

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