Biden Will Blow the Chance for Indonesia To Join the Abraham Accords — and Other Predictions for 2022

Following are my annual predictions for America’s global agenda in the coming year. Please remind me next year of all predictions that came true — and ignore the few that didn’t.Russia and China: The alliance of America’s top two foes will tighten. Washington will bring a purse to a gunfight, imposing sanctions, while Beijing and Moscow will expand and usurp territories. “The whole world can benefit from our relations with China,” Russia’s deputy ambassador at the United Nations, Dmitry Polyanskiy, told me this week.Well, perhaps some see it a bit differently in Kiev, Taipei, other Asian democracies, most of Europe, and, yes, here in America. Keep an eye, however, on an economic downturn in Communist China. It will complicate the lives of the men at the top, not only the Chinese party boss, Chairman Xi, but also the Russ strongman, Vladimir Putin.Iran. America’s adversaries are optimistic that in Vienna, this week’s talks to renew the nuclear deal will lead to an accord. They’re right, and that’s bad news. Tehran will “freeze” its program, which means it’ll keep advances made since President Biden acceded to office. In return for becoming a threshold nuclear power, the Iranians will agree to increased international inspections of some nuclear facilities— and then renege on their promises.Meanwhile sanctions will be eased, so that a lot of cash will flow into the Islamic Republic’s dwindling coffers. Proxies in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza will rejoice. Escalation of missile attacks on America’s bases will force Mr. Biden to reprise in Iraq his surrender in Afghanistan. One prospect: By the end of the year the age-related ailments of Ali Khamenei will become evident. Poverty-stricken, oppressed Iranians will then rise up and hasten the regime’s end.Pandemic and Climate. Everyone will continue to talk about them.Space. 2022 is the year the new frontier will become a hot frontier. Major powers will take much of their terrestrial combat skills to space. China, regrettably, has an edge. To catch up America will need to marshal all scientific and technological advantages that free societies possess.Southern Border. As Mexico’s economy takes a dive due to disastrous policies of the left-populist president, Lopez Obrador, increasing numbers of Mexicans will seek employment in el Norte. Pressure will rise at the border, where Washington struggles to stop waves of refugees from crime-ridden Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras. Mexico’s people-smuggling coyotes will become top crime bosses, edging out less profitable drug lords.Africa. In the strategically-located country of Somalia this week, President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo sacked Prime Minister Roble. As the country’s fragile order frays, America will be drawn in, attempting to defend freedom of navigation in the Red Sea. Mali, meanwhile, will remain a hotspot, as Russian-backed mercenaries deepen their involvement.Abraham Accords. National Security Adviser Jacob Sullivan reportedly “raised” with his Indonesian counterpart, Retno Marsudi, the possibility of the world’s most populous Muslim country joining Arab countries that, under the leadership of the Trump administration, normalized ties with Israel. Alas, leaking to the press tidbits from sensitive talks with policymakers in one of the world’s most antisemitic countries is hardly the way to promote peace.Unlike the original signatories of the Abraham Accords, neither Indonesia nor, for that matter, Malaysia has much incentive to change its anti-Israel policies. Bet instead on Africa’s Arab countries that will follow Morocco, eyeing the windfalls that having diplomatic relations with Jeruslaem can bring.UNITED NATIONS. This week the General Assembly approved a new, unprecedented, open-ended investigative committee with 18 permanent staff members. Probing “root causes” of the latest aggression by Hamas from Gaza, the panel’s objective is to smear Israel by alleging war crimes. America voted against it, but the committee’s funds are derived from the regular UN budget, so American taxpayers will pay nearly a quarter of all its related salaries, travel and other expenses.Washington can deal a death blow to such outrages by demanding to fund only those organs of the United Nations that it supports. Some candidates in next year’s congressional races may demand such reform, but the administration will insist on keeping the ailing UN on life support.Either way, in 2022 the UN will end, imploding under its own weight and folding its tent at Turtle Bay. I have been making that prediction for years and will repeat it next year, and the year after that. One day I’ll be right.Twitter @bennyavni

Biden Will Blow the Chance for Indonesia To Join the Abraham Accords — and Other Predictions for 2022

More from the New York Sun

Is John F. Kennedy Having a Comeback?

Moody’s Warns on New York City’s Debt

One War Aim Might Require Boots on the Ground

More from the New York Sun

Is John F. Kennedy Having a Comeback?

Moody’s Warns on New York City’s Debt

One War Aim Might Require Boots on the Ground

Reckoning Ahead for Democrats Over Soaring Energy Costs

‘Insanity’: White House Blasts CBS News for Hiring Former Liz Cheney Staffer for Prestigious Job

Trump Walks Back Welcome After Iran Says It Won’t Play in U.S.-Hosted World Cup

Trump Administration Plans Jones Act Waivers in Effort To Lower Skyrocketing Fuel Costs

Paranormal Podcast Film ‘Undertone’ Upends the Horror Movie Genre, To Creepy Effect