Burmese Are Watching Next Protest
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

MAE SOT, Thailand — The Burmese are watching the calendar with apprehension.
Friday marks the beginning of a monthlong festival, Kahtein, on whose central ritual, giving monks gifts of new red robes, some democratic activists are pinning their hopes for further street demonstrations against the junta that rules the country.
As monks across Burma go about their morning begging rounds, they are reportedly refusing to accept alms from military personnel. Within the country, this boycott persists as the most organized and visible sign of opposition to the Burmese government since the junta ended mass street demonstrations last month with gunfire and nighttime arrests.
This quiet act by the monks is a potential source of unease for Burma’s soldiers, as the giving of alms to monks is one way Buddhists accumulate merit for the afterlife. It is a rebuke against the junta, whose efforts to publicize the devoutness of the country’s rulers is evidenced in the state-controlled press, where news items painstakingly catalog the donations of individual generals.
With the coming of Kahtein, Burmese activists are waiting to see how the junta will try to crack the boycott and force monks to allow the military to participate in this largest of Buddhist donation rituals. Recent refugees from Burma are bringing to Thailand rumors that the junta may outlaw the festival this year. Such restrictions or further arrests at monasteries could become the catalyst for future monk demonstrations, half a dozen Burmese politicians in exile and recent refugees who participated in last month’s demonstrations told The New York Sun last week.
“Something will happen surely by 30 days after the full moon,” a monk from Rangoon said, referring to the period of the festival, which is timed to the lunar calendar. The monk, 31, who asked that his name be withheld because of fear of Burmese authorities, said through an interpreter that he crossed to Thailand after leading protests last month among the 450 monks studying with him at the Kabaye Sangha University. Of the possibility that Kahtein will prompt further civil unrest, the monk said: “Monks and civilians are aware of this, and not only them, but the SPDC too,” calling the ruling party, the State Peace and Development Council, by its acronym.
The interviews with this monk and other recent refugees were conducted in a house along the Thailand-Burma border belonging to an exile chapter of Burma’s main opposition group, the National League for Democracy. On Saturday the junta lifted a temporary ban in the capital city of Rangoon on gatherings of more than five people, according to news reports. Also lifted was a curfew, under cover of which security forces had been searching homes for activists in hiding. These moves signal that the junta no longer considers further demonstrations imminent.
In contrast, many Burmese now in Thailand said they believed that the uprising would resume in a matter of months. Some said they believe Kahtein will provoke further unrest, while others said the next demonstrations would start with workers and students, not monks. The next few months will tell whether these expectations are more than the desperate hope of a suffering people.
Kahtein, which comes at the conclusion of a three-month period during which tradition dictates that monks stay near their monasteries, is the main time for giving gifts to monks. In addition to the distinctive red robes Burmese monks wear, monasteries receive donations of slippers, umbrellas, and other items on the short list of possessions a monk requires. These gifts are tagged with the names of donors and gathered in public places around the country.
“This could become the spark,” a Burmese politician who was imprisoned for five years for participating in demonstrations in 1974 said. The politician, Bo Kyaw Nyein, said in a telephone interview from Chiang Mai, Thailand: “The monks’ denial in accepting religious offerings can be a very effective and potent political defiance tool.”
A chain reaction would be needed for the coinciding of the boycott and the festival to trigger further protests against the junta. Activists speculate that the boycott will prompt reprisals against the monks, which might then lead monks to demonstrate. But events could also peter out before resulting in a single demonstration.
Monks formed the core of the last round of street protests, which grew into the largest popular challenge to the junta’s rule in nearly 20 years. The involvement of the monasteries nationwide began in response to news of the brutality that the military meted out to monks in Pakokku to the west of Mandalay.
The monks there had been protesting the junta’s decision to raise fuel costs sharply, when state security forces assaulted several of the monks and fired warning shots, according to news reports. The boycott on alms began as a response to the events at Pakokku, monks have said.
The widespread arrests of the last month may have depleted the monasteries of the monks who led the last protests, raising questions of whether monasteries will organize more marches against the junta anytime soon. One monk who crossed into Thailand on Wednesday said through an interpreter that the junta has ordered novice monks to return home, in a bid to empty the monasteries.
The monk, Ven Sawbana, said he stood for about 10 minutes with one demonstration last month Burma’s southern Mon state. He said he came across the demonstration accidentally while on a shopping trip on behalf of his monastery. A onetime prisoner in Burma, sentenced for serving with an opposition army largely composed of the Karen minority group, Ven Sawbana, 45, said he decided to flee after he learned that many other former prisoners he knew were being re-arrested.
Of the prospects of further street demonstrations soon, he said: “I don’t have any hope. Monks all over the country were separated. No one can move.”
But a student leader said that even in hiding, student activists were planning details of the next round of demonstrations. Ye Htun Kyaw, 33, who served seven years of a 21-year sentence for demonstrating in 1998 said that student leaders would lead future demonstrations along more circuitous routes, away from military barricades and government buildings, in an effort to sustain them for longer periods and allow them to grow before the inevitable clash with security forces.
“The activists in hiding are waiting for an opportunity,” Ye Htun Kyaw said. “Next time we will march for a longer time, for as long as possible.”