Could Brexit Yet Rise Like a Phoenix?

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The New York Sun

Is Brexit a phoenix in disguise? Imitating that fabled bird, Brexit went down in flames at Brussels last week. Britain’s true independence from the European Union, however, may yet be resurrected from the ashes. Has Brexit, phoenix-like, acquired new life?

In a desperate bid to save her Withdrawal Agreement, Prime Minister Theresa May met her parliamentary party Wednesday and, in exchange for their support, promised to resign. The idea would be to allow new leadership to take charge of the trade deal portion of Britain’s two-step exit from the EU.

Mrs. May’s sacrifice of power for her preferred deal gathered strength, in a relative way, when, during “indicative votes” in the Commons later that day, none of the alternatives gained a majority.

No. 10 interprets this as a sign that the continuing stalemate may work to the Government’s benefit. Rumors circulate that Mrs. May’s personal agreement with her party has had the contrary effect, souring opposition MPs who had been prepared to vote in favor to get Brexit behind them. (Why discussions among members of the governing party are now deemed “extra-parliamentary” is bewildering.)

Meanwhile, other MPs, are seeing the EU extension as an opportunity to bargain for better terms. They had previously voted for Mrs. May’s deal and are said to be rethinking their voting strategy.

In a developing twist, Mrs. May will bring only part of her Withdrawal Agreement to the Commons for a vote — the “divorce” component, not the political statement of the UK-EU relationship.

As details emerge, the Government must get legislation passed by the “old” Brexit date (today) if Britain is to leave the EU by the new May 22 deadline. Are mandarins devising rules on the fly, to bedevil an amical exit?

If the latest Government bill is defeated, leaving April 12 with no deal — “WTO Brexit” — comes to the fore once more, barring another Article 50 extension. Our Brexit saga whets the appetite again. Nil desperandum.

One question remains: Who will take up the cause of WTO Brexit in Parliament? None shine as Brexit’s paladin-premier. “Put not your trust in princes,” as the Psalmist wrote.

Former stalwarts Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg have blotted their copy-books, offering Mrs. May’s deal provisional support, on the basis of Irish Democratic Unionists coming onside or her departure before ongoing UK-EU negotiations.

As potential leaders, Cabinet Brexiteers like Michael Gove, Liam Fox, or Andrea Leadsom enjoy a certain consistency for having stood by the Prime Minister and her plan, but who wants another roll of those dice? Once bitten, twice shy. (In that vein, I dasn’t even consider those Remainers in Government, like David Lidington, who have been cited as possible successors.)

Alternatively, there are former Cabinet members who, for various reasons, resigned on principle in opposition to the Government’s Brexit agenda. MPs like Steve Baker and Dominic Raab. Little known outside the Westminster bubble, it is doubtful they could command enough support to get Tory MPs to bolster their candidacies.

A third rank of Conservatives do Brexit proud. Peter Bone, Sir William Cash, David Davis, Nigel Evans, Sir Bernard Jenkin, Sir John Redwood, and countless others. They form the backbone of Britain’s struggle to exit the EU. Future residence at Downing Street, though, is highly unlikely.

No matter. Achieving WTO Brexit now trumps partisanship. (Labor MP Kate Hoey, for instance, is a study in courage.)

As one of the eight indicative votes on offer, “no deal” lost by 160 to 400. Only the byzantine “Malthouse compromise” did worse, with 422 against. Two options received less support than “no deal” and two surpassed it by no more than 28 votes.

The option with the greatest support, at 264 votes, was for a customs union. Given that UK freedom to secure its own trade agreements, plus set its own tariffs and regulations, was a driving force behind the 2016 referendum, this option seems dead on arrival. (The eighth option, for a “confirmatory referendum,” isn’t an arrangement with the EU at all.)

With 650 seats in the House of Commons, Brexit needs 326 votes to get over the finish line. With 160 MPs supporting the “WTO-no deal” option, each need only persuade or cajole an opposing colleague (as it were) to ensure success.

The phoenix, “from the sacred ashes of her honor,” Shakespeare wrote, “shall star-like rise as great in fame as she was, and so stand fixed.” She is the metaphor for Brexiteers to emulate, in this hour of Britain’s struggle to shake off the EU and rise again to independence.


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