The End of the Cedar Revolution

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

The Arab League, just as it did with the 1989 Taif Accord, is putting together a compromise agreement to save Lebanon. And just like the earlier pact, the new agreement has the potential to put Lebanon back under Syria’s influence. President Bush, who will arrive in the Middle East this week, can ill afford such a setback in the struggle over the region.

“There is a lot of optimism here that by next week the crisis will be over,” a friend in Beirut told me in a phone call yesterday. Most Lebanese, especially the pleasure- and profit-seeking men and women of Beirut, are sick and tired of the political haggling that has immobilized the country, leaving it without a president since November.

Outsiders are also frustrated. President Sarkozy suspended France’s diplomatic relations with Syria in protest over the impasse in Lebanon, and Mr. Bush accused Syria and Iran of meddling in the country. Yesterday, the former Iranian nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, retorted after a meeting with President Assad in Damascus that Mr. Bush’s “threats” against Iran are “similar to the cries of worried, aged women who create commotion to cover their fears,” the Islamic Republic News Agency reported.

The Middle East equivalent of Cold War-era Berlin, Lebanon has long been the sandlot for war gamers, the place where all the world and regional powers play. To top all that, the Lebanese people also have to deal with a nasty neighbor, Baathist Syria, which has yet to acknowledge explicitly that Lebanon is an independent country.

The Arab League-facilitated Taif Accord allowed the Syrian army to be invited in to Lebanon to end the civil war of the 1980s. But the agreement also opened the door for the 15-year Syrian occupation, which appeared to be nearing an end during the euphoric uprising known as the Cedar Revolution, in the aftermath of the 2005 assassination of a former Lebanese prime minister, Rafik Hariri.

Syria, unable to let go of an economic and cultural gold mine — and working more and more closely with its main benefactor, Iran, which uses Lebanon as one of the launching pads for its war against Israel — used its leftover ties in Beirut to beat down a Lebanese independent-oriented movement.

Last month, the Saudi- and Western-backed governing majority in Lebanon agreed to support a compromise candidate for the presidency, General Michel Suleiman, despite the army chief’s strong ties to Damascus. But the minority politicians in Beirut, backed by Iran and Syria, immediately upped the ante, demanding that the Shiite bloc in the next government have the power to veto any decision.

In Cairo yesterday, the Arab League’s foreign ministers, including Syria, agreed on a compromise that at first glance seems like a neat disentangling of Beirut’s Gordian knot. Under the plan, none of the factions gets enough seats in the government to block its decisions, but the president has the power to approve government decisions. When in doubt, in other words, General Suleiman will be the decider.

The general, whose army career has necessitated strong coordination with the powers in Damascus, is unlikely to act against Syria’s interests in such momentous decisions as the final approval of cooperation with the international tribunal to try suspects in the Hariri and other political assassinations. Thus, the Assad regime may literally get away with numerous murders.

The secretary-general of the Arab League, Amr Moussa, will arrive in Beirut this week to seal the deal, just as Mr. Bush arrives in Israel at the start of his Middle East tour, which includes no stop in Lebanon, at least according to the official schedule. Yesterday in Cairo, Mr. Moussa said he sympathized with a reporter who expressed the regionally prevalent skepticism of America’s peace efforts.

Mr. Bush appears to be trying to diffuse such skepticism by leaning slightly harder on Israel in public than he did in his first seven years as president.

His father’s old advisers may believe in forging a regional anti-Iranian front akin to the one 41 created against Saddam Hussein in 1990, but the only way to face up to Iran is by confronting it everywhere, and Lebanon is a great place to start.

Obsessed with an elusive peace between the Palestinian Arabs and Israel, the Bush administration has regrettably dropped this ball, allowing Mr. Sarkozy to lead on Lebanese policy. Once the flipflopping French president failed, the Arab League took over, much to the delight of Syria and Iran. Lebanon, meanwhile, must brace itself again for a long wait for a cue from America before its people may dare to believe again that they can become truly independent.

bavni@nysun.com


The New York Sun

© 2024 The New York Sun Company, LLC. All rights reserved.

Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. The material on this site is protected by copyright law and may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, cached or otherwise used.

The New York Sun

Sign in or  Create a free account

By continuing you agree to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use