Geopolitical <i>Ménage à Trois</i> Among Russia, China, and Belarus Grows More Curious by the Day

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Buried amid the churn of the Russo-Ukrainian news cycle are recent agreements signed between Communist China and Belarus that raise the specter of Beijing’s involvement in the mounting Ukrainian crisis. Could it be that China is helping to fan the flames of crisis in Europe to advance its own geopolitical aims?

Belarus’ president, Aleksandr Lukashenko, on December 6 signed a directive deepening his country’s relations with China. The directive expands measures that have been in place since 2015, including digital cooperation, partnerships in science and technology, and implementation in Belarus of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative.

For China, Belarus is a key European link. It is seen as a bridgehead to the Baltic states and to Eastern Europe, and as a testing ground for Beijing’s European policies. One of its largest overseas development projects –– the Great Stone Industrial Park, a $2 billion hi-tech special economic zone –– is based in Belarus, near the capital, Minsk. President Xi Jinping has called it “a pearl” of the Belt and Road overland.

Indeed, Chinese officials have gone so far as to brand Belarus “our Pakistan in Europe,” referencing the critical role that Pakistan plays in Beijing’s geopolitical ambitions, particularly through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Yet more newsworthy than any economic cooperation between the two countries is the burgeoning military partnership amid the drumbeat of war. Russia continues to mass troops on the Ukrainian border, threatening action if its red lines are breached.

In a separate memorandum signed on November 29 between Belarus’s defense ministry and Communist China’s central military commission, the countries vowed to bolster their “international military cooperation,” with joint activities planned for 2022. American intelligence is also warning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine early next year.

While no further details have been released, China has previously supplied Minsk with military equipment and technology, including telecommunications satellites. Armies from both countries have also jointly held special operation exercises. “China is ready to defend, together with Belarus, the national interests of each other,” Beijing’s ambassador to Belarus, Xie Xiaoyong, said at the memorandum’s signing.

Yet since 2020, Belarus ‘national interests’ have been moving in closer alignment with Moscow’s. Presidents Lukashekno and Putin recently agreed to advance plans for the creation of a Belarus-Russian ‘Union State’ –– an idea first initiated and signed into existence in 1999. The plans include a joint military doctrine.

“We effectively have a single army, with the Belarusian military forming its backbone in the western direction,” Mr. Lukashenko said earlier this year. The two countries have increased the scale and scope of their military exercises, including along the Ukrainian border.

In an interview with Russian state broadcaster RIA Novosti this month, Mr. Lukashenko reaffirmed the budding alliance. Should conflict erupt, “I will do everything to make Ukraine ours. It is our Ukraine,” he said.

Ours?

As Russia and Belarus hasten their ostensible amalgamation, could it be that, by strengthening its own relations with Minsk, Beijing is indirectly aiding Moscow? In the short term, conflict in Europe would be less-than-ideal for Beijing and its investments along the Belt and Road.

In the longer term, though, should Mr. Putin’s aggressive maneuvers succeed, an expanded Russian sphere of influence, and an ostensibly weakened NATO could suit Beijing quite well. As a bonus, chaos in Europe would provide ample distraction to enable it to advance in the Indo-Pacific.

As has been reported in the Sun, strategic ties between Russia and China are expanding. For Moscow, relations with Beijing are imperative to offset Western political and economic pressures. Moscow plays a similar role for Beijing.

More recently, Russia has assumed the added role of an increasingly eager partner in the Belt and Road initiative –– the expansion of which a wider Russian footprint could help hasten.

Messrs. Putin and Xi will tomorrow convene for a virtual summit to assess their bilateral relations and outcomes, and plan for the coming year. Mr. Putin held a similar conversation with Mr. Lukashenko on Friday. The geopolitical ménage à trois between Russia, China, and Belarus is growing ever-more curious –– and dangerous.

________

Ms. Gadzala-Tirziu is a foreign policy analyst, political writer, and university lecturer in international relations. @awgadzala.


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