German Foreign Minister Heads to Moscow and Could Decide Ukraine’s Fate

BERLIN – Germany’s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, will travel to Moscow on Tuesday and meet with her Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, to attempt to de-escalate the growing tensions along the Ukraine-Russia border.One question looms heavily over Mrs. Baerbock’s visit: Will the Germans stand with Ukraine or will Berlin’s economic interests take precedence over the integrity of the flawed but democratic Ukrainian state?The new foreign minister will also have a chance to test her unusual resume. She is a member of the Green Party who has emerged as something of a hawk in respect of the Russians, and her abilities to deploy those views will be closely watched in the wake of the hapless dialogue between America, Russia, and NATO allies.This is all taking place in the face of the buildup of Russian forces along Ukraine’s war-torn eastern border. Analysts estimate more than 100,000 troops, including medical and logistical support and heavy weaponry, are staging in Russia’s west, poised to invade Ukraine. Ukraine would stand little chance of staving off a concerted Russian offensive.A lack of progress between Russia, NATO, and America during recent talks in Brussels and Geneva may give Berlin an opening. Ahead of her trip, Mrs. Baerbock told reporters any renewed aggression against Ukraine “would have a high price.”What price Russia would pay is unclear, though, and German messaging on the issue has been divided and, at times, contradictory. During her chancellor candidacy in the run-up to federal elections, Mrs. Baerbock called vociferously for an end to the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.The energy line would double Russian natural gas deliveries to Germany, Europe’s economic dynamo and no. 1 destination for Russian fossil fuel exports to the continent. The pipeline’s importance to Germany’s export-driven economy is significant.Mrs. Baerbock’s objections came not on narrow environmental grounds. As a chancellor candidate, the young Green party co-leader pointed out the pipeline’s potential to divide Europe and leave Germany dangerously dependent on Russian energy.Mrs. Baerbock’s position has since been eclipsed somewhat by the views of Chancellor Scholz. In his view, deescalating the growing crisis in Ukraine and certifying the Nord Stream 2 pipeline are separate issues that should not become intertwined.Mr. Scholz previously called the pipeline an entirely “private-sector project” that should be evaluated for compliance with European law while warning against using the energy pipeline as a geopolitical bargaining chip to deter Russian aggression against Ukraine.Energy project certification is “decided quite apolitically … in Germany,” Mr. Scholz emphasized, explaining that the pipeline’s final certification is a “different question” from efforts to prevent a violation of Ukrainian borders.The new secretary-general of Mr. Scholz’s Social Democrat party, Kevin Kühnert, largely concurs. He defended the Nord Stream 2 project and issued a veiled threat to his junior coalition partners, the Greens, advising against conjuring up potential international conflicts “in order to bury projects” like the Russian gas pipeline.Chancellor Scholz’s position, and that of the Social Democrats, is curious. Why would Germany — a country that proudly touts its post-war human rights record and support for the rule of law — favor completing the energy project in the face of recent Russian threats toward Ukraine?One reason could be economic self-interest: An affinity for Russian energy projects is deeply ingrained in Messrs. Scholz and Kühnert’s party.The chairman of the shareholder committee of Gazprom, the majority Russian state-owned multinational behind Nord Stream 2, is none other than Gerhard Schröder, who served as German chancellor between 1998 and 2005. He was the last Social Democrat to hold the office since Mr. Scholz acceded as chancellor in December.In the meantime, Russia’s build-up of forces along the country’s western border with Ukraine continues unabated, though Moscow’s next move — invade or withdraw — remains opaque._________________Image: Annalena Baerbock, German foreign minister. Michelle Tantussi/Reuters.

German Foreign Minister Heads to Moscow and Could Decide Ukraine’s Fate

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