Germany Heads in a New Direction

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The New York Sun

BERLIN – German voters dumped Chancellor Schroeder’s government yesterday but split their ballots among so many different parties that none was able to muster enough support to replace it.


Exit polls indicated the German electorate was more fragmented than it had been in any other national vote in recent history, a reflection of deep anxiety over record unemployment and years of anemic growth in the world’s third-largest economy. Although voters delivered a resounding defeat to Mr. Schroeder’s ruling coalition, they were almost equally unimpressed with his chief rival, Angela Merkel, who was bidding to become the country’s first female chancellor and the first from the former East Germany.


Mrs. Merkel’s party, the Christian Democrats, received about 35% of the vote, narrowly beating Mr. Schroeder’s Social Democrats, who won about 34%,according to exit polls and early unofficial returns. The margin was so close that some pollsters said it was possible the two parties could wind up with an identical number of seats in Parliament under Germany’s complicated formula for determining political representation.


Voters were choosing lawmakers for the 598-seat lower house of Parliament, which elects the chancellor to head the government.


The results were embarrassingly weak showings for the two parties that have dominated German politics since the end of World War II. Neither was able to cobble together a majority with their usual coalition partners, leaving the question of who would lead the country unresolved.


Because the Christian Democrats finished first, they will get the first crack at putting together a new government in negotiations with other parties, a process that could take several days or even weeks. “We had hoped for a better result,” Mrs. Merkel told a subdued group of supporters at party headquarters in Berlin. “The campaign is over and now we need to create a stable government for the people of Germany. This is our mandate.”


Analysts said that despite her party’s tepid showing, Mrs. Merkel remained the favorite to emerge as chancellor. But Mr. Schroeder was far from conceding the end of his reign, saying he would seek to cut a deal with other parties to remain on the job.


Even though his party lost, Mr. Schroeder looked like a candidate who had achieved a great victory. He gave himself a double thumbs-up and clasped his hands above his head when he emerged in public after the polls closed.


“Those who wanted a change in the office of this chancellor have failed grandly,” he said defiantly. “I feel I have a mandate to ensure that in the next four years there will be a stable government in our country, under my leadership.”


The most likely outcome, according to party officials and political analysts, is for the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats to form a unity government, or a “grand coalition.” While Mrs. Merkel would be the favorite to lead such an alliance by virtue of her party’s stronger finish, nothing is certain.


Polls have shown that a plurality of voters preferred a grand coalition, saying they did not trust either major party to run the country on its own.


“If they put all those smart minds they say they have together, all the people they say they have as experts, I think it would turn out better for Germany,” a bartender in the Berlin suburb of Reinickendorf, Detlef Schlussler, 58, said. “If they start thinking about Germans first, and what they can do about unemployment, it will be better for everyone.”


Many analysts and political experts said they feared a grand coalition would bring political gridlock, making it even more difficult for Germany to find a way out of its economic doldrums.


“Germans weren’t ready to vote for reform, they just weren’t ready to make those hard decisions necessary to make Germany competitive again,” the director of the American Academy in Berlin, Gary Smith, said. “The prognosis for reform is not good in the next couple of years. It’s hard to imagine a not-so-grand coalition pushing Germany ahead, except in the smallest possible steps.”


Germany exports more goods than any other country and has a major impact on the economic health of the rest of Europe. But the nation of about 82 million people has been in a rut for a decade, hampered by the enormous expenses required to absorb the former East Germany after the collapse of the Berlin Wall. Growth has also been stifled by expensive social welfare programs, as well as strict workplace protections that discourage the creation of new jobs.


Unemployment hit 11.6% this year, the highest mark in 60 years. Although the elections weren’t scheduled to take place until next year, Mr. Schroeder decided in June to call for an early vote, saying he no longer had enough support in his party to continue.


“There’s a German saying that essentially translates to say, ‘Wash me, but don’t make me wet,’ “a political scientist at the University of Mainz, Juergen Falter, said. He predicted it could take two or three years of rising unemployment coupled with flat economic growth before a clear majority of voters is ready to embrace a new direction.


Mrs. Merkel and the Christian Democrats began the campaign with a double-digit lead in the polls, but their advantage dwindled steadily as she turned off voters with her straight talk about the country’s problems. Her top proposal was to raise the sales tax – already 16% on most items – to raise money for her job creation plan.


Mr. Schroeder took advantage of Mrs. Merkel’s missteps, turning the campaign into a referendum on her policies instead of his job performance. He repeatedly raised the specter that a Merkel-led government would send troops to Iraq, an extremely unpopular notion in Germany. The tactic worked for Mr. Schroeder in 2002, when he won a second term by emphasizing his opposition to American policy in Iraq.


The biggest beneficiaries in the elections were Germany’s smaller political parties. Mrs. Merkel’s ally, the Free Democrats, received about 10%, higher than expected but not enough to form a majority government with their usual partner, the Christian Democrats.


The Greens, who have served as Mr. Schroeder’s junior partner in government for the past seven years, scored about 8%, exit polls showed.


Playing the spoiler role was the Left Party, a new group consisting of former East German communists and defectors from Mr. Schroeder’s party, which capitalized on anger over his spending cuts to welfare programs. The Left also drew about 8% of the vote, giving it control over a potential swing bloc of seats in Parliament.


“Our daring endeavor has paid off,” a former finance minister under Mr. Schroeder, Oskar Lafontaine, who abandoned the Social Democrats and co-founded the Left Party, said. “We now know for sure that there will be leftist representation in the German Parliament.”


Both Mr. Schroeder and Mrs. Merkel ruled out the possibility of forming a coalition with the Left Party, saying their views were incompatible with the mainstream parties.


The New York Sun

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