The last few weeks have in Europe been marked by an impending sense of doom — akin, for this Floridian, to the apprehension that accompanies a looming hurricane. Will it make a direct hit or will we, by some stroke of luck, be spared? Russian maneuvers on Ukraine’s border and its entry into Kazakhstan have prompted similar anxieties — call it Hurricane Putin.

With this week’s diplomatic talks underway — between American and Russian officials today at Geneva, followed on Wednesday by the Russian-NATO Council at Brussels, and ending on the meeting of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe Thursday at Vienna — there is now, too, a growing sense of coming clarity as the storm discloses its path.

So far, the prognosis does not look good.

Moscow arrives at the parley with a strong hand. Its military intervention in Kazakhstan under the Collective Security Treaty Organization and at the behest of the Kazakh president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, has ostensibly expanded its influence. As has been noted in these columns, Mr. Putin could seize on the moment to annex northern Kazakhstan, as Moscow tried in 1992.

Meantime, more than 100,000 Russian troops are stationed on the border of Ukraine, with Mr. Putin threatening military action if his demands are not met. He has managed to shape the global narrative, with some Western reports taking on an Alice in Wonderland quality, echoing chatter about “the threat from NATO.” What threat?

Mr. Putin behaves as if he’s playing for keeps and would stop at nothing short of the revival of the pre-1991 European security order. For Moscow, the current moment is about more than just Ukraine or, for that matter, NATO. The West’s narrative has been less clear, and Western leaders arrive at the talks ostensibly frenzied and divided.

A prelude to the week came with a flurry of reports — and denials in Washington — that the Biden administration would consider scaling back American troop deployments in Poland and the Baltics in exchange for Russian de-escalation. Even if unfounded, such rumors suggest a diplomatic weakness and conciliatory posture on which Mr. Putin is counting. Moscow has already signaled “disappointment” with the messaging from Washington.

On America’s side, negotiations are led by Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, who negotiated the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran. This, too, offers little comfort. In a readout from Secretary Sherman’s first meeting with her counterpart, Sergei Ryabkov, the American is quoted as saying, “The United States will discuss certain bilateral issues with Russia, but will not discuss European security without our European Allies.”

It is, of course, only correct and prudent to include in negotiations the countries most likely to be affected by the outcome. Yet in the current context this, too, smacks of American vacillation. Under the threat of war, Mr. Putin requested a meeting with President Biden over the heads of America’s European allies — and Mr. Biden acquiesced.

Once the misstep was grasped, there was then a quick rearranging of chairs and an announcement that the meeting between Russia and America would take place in Europe and only amid meetings with other European partners. Yet Mr. Putin has limited interest in these additional meetings.

Their eventual outcome is also unclear. While NATO’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, has said that NATO “stands ready for conflict in Europe” and is ready to “strive for a better relationship,” Germany has been downplaying the risks and signaling a desire for a “new Ostpolitik,’ as earlier reported in the Sun.

Russia, too, has little interest in a “better relationship” with Europe or in abiding by the kind of “rules based international order” to which Ms. Sherman alluded in her remarks. In what is a decisive week in European and global politics, then, the West stands as a house divided and seemingly not fully aware of — or otherwise uncertain what to do about — Moscow’s menacing.

For Europe Hurricane Putin blows in as a precarious moment that teeters between war and appeasement, both of which risk altering its geopolitics. Let us not forget, too, that on the sidelines sits Communist China, which is watching closely to discover the limits of American and Western power. The storm is fast approaching, and we seem to be heading for a direct hit.