If Iran Attacks Israel, Lebanon Would Emerge As Ground Zero

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The turmoil in Lebanon, a premier Mideast weather vane, is growing to the point where it’s suddenly could spill over into neighboring Arab countries, as well as to Israel. Outsiders cheer on as simpatico Beirut protesters show their anger in the streets, but if history is any guide, this uprising may well end in tears.

For nearly a week now, more than a million citizens of the tiny land of cedars have been out in force at Beirut and other cities. They are expressing anger at their government and the politicians. The dignity in which these fashionable Beirutis have conducted their demonstrations, complete with song, dance, and acts of kindness, is the envy of the Arab world, where the press can’t get enough of the scenes from Lebanon.

It all started last week, when the government issued a plan to tax the use of the popular communication application WhatsApp. Already heavily taxed, protesters were angry. While asking ever more of the taxpayers, the heavily indebted, corrupt, and dysfunctional Lebanese government has long ceased to deliver on basic functions.

The country is suffering from chronic electrical outages, poor garbage collection, water pipe breakdowns, and deteriorating hospitals and schools. The prime minister, Saad Hariri, whose worth is estimated by Forbes at $1.5 billion, symbolizes the wealth gap. Mr. Hariri mostly inherited his fortune from his father, the late prime minister and Saudi-backed contractor Rafik Hariri, who was assassinated in 2005.

It didn’t help that just before the start of Lebanon’s demonstrations, a story emerged from South Africa, where a swimsuit model needed to explain to Pretoria’s tax authorities why in 2013 Mr. Hariri gave her $16 million of his own money as a gift. The implied expensive love affair was all over the press in both countries.

As unrest spreads, the peaceful protesters may soon realize their real enemy might well be not the prime minister, inept though he may be, but the ever-present power broker in the country —Hezbollah. The heavily armed terror organization and militia members affiliated with its allied Shiite organization, Amal, have already started using firearms against protesters in Nabatiyeh in southern Lebanon, as well as in Tripoli in the north. Several casualties have been reported.

The Iran-Backed Lebanese Shiites initially sided with the demonstrators, but soon realized that if the Sunni-headed government’s hold on power is threatened, they may lose their own power too. Hezbollah controls much of the Lebanese army (which is armed and financially supported by Washington).

Also, along with the Amal party, Hezbollah has five ministers in Mr. Hariri’s 30-member cabinet — and a veto power over its policies. By intimidation it also determines the country’s security and foreign policy decisions, while changing societal norms.

Hezbollah also controls much of Lebanon’s south where it has, by some estimates, more than 100,000 rockets aimed at the Jewish state. After fighting for a decade on behalf of Bashar al Assad and enhancing Iran’s interests there, it’s also battle-ready. Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed militias are increasingly amassed at the Syrian Golan, right on Israel’s border.

If — Or, as some Israeli security analysts see it, when — Iran decides to attack Israel for its own reason, Lebanon will be ground zero. A direct new confrontation will be bloodier for Lebanese and Israelis than the two previous wars, but to divert attention from the dire political situation in Lebanon and its own dire economy, Iran may well decide, along with its Hezbollah puppet, that the time to hit Israel is now.

Another, very different, effect of the unrest is its possible spread to the rest of the Arab world. With images of Lebanese flooding streets in defiance of their government beamed across the region, a renewed Arab Spring isn’t out of the question. Small protests against government corruption have already started in Jordan and the West Bank, inspired by Lebanon.

Like much of its first manifestation a decade ago, it could end in authorities cruelly crushing hopes for a better, more democratic future.

So far, Beirut has chosen to appease its own people. On Monday Mr. Hariri announced relief measures that include a one-time tax on the country’s banks, a slashing of government officials’ salaries by half, a restructuring of the electricity-supplying sector, and other measures, including rescinding the tax package that ignited the outcry.

Yet, as in Hong Kong and elsewhere, the protesters by now are calling for more far-reaching reforms — including an end to Lebanon’s sectarian-based politics that, at the moment, allot the premiership to a Sunni, the presidency to a Maronite Christian, and the leadership of parliament to a Shiite. Also, like their Iraqi brethren, the Lebanese protesters are starting to demand an end to Iran’s influence, via Hezbollah, over the country’s politics.

With the specter of spillover to other countries, and as Hezbollah remains the strongest and most vicious military power in Lebanon, this last week could signal a return to Lebanon’s 16-year civil war that ended in 1991. Like then, it could complicate America’s calculations in an already very complex region. For now, we should all wish our best for Lebanon, but prepare for the worst.

________

Mr. Avni, who is based at the United Nations, is a contributing editor of the Sun. Twitter: @bennyavni


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