In 2007, Expect Palestinian Arab Factions To Wage War

This year has been momentous for the Middle East, but 2007 is going to be dramatic.In the Gaza Strip and West Bank, a full-scale factional war will erupt among the Palestinian Arabs, with unpredictable consequences.This time around, the “brotherhood” is over.Fatah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and other assorted mafias will participate, while outside sponsors such as Iran, Syria, and Jordan will supply the bullets, rockets, money, and ill-will.International and American sanctions against Iran and Syria will increase, as will defiance by the two nations. Damascus and Tehran will team up to destabilize Lebanon by activating their proxy, Hezbollah — and the 400,000 Palestinian Arab refugees who work closely with the Shiite militia — to push the country into a renewed civil war, one far more vicious than the 15-year conflict that ended in 1990.Like the Palestinian Arab battle, Lebanon’s civil war will attract support and weapons, drawing in Western and Middle Eastern sponsors to supply the country’s Christians, Shiites, Sunnis, Druze, and Armenians. Jihadists, always on the lookout for training spots, also will flock into Lebanon to establish bases of operations.In Iraq and Iran — but also in Afghanistan, Lebanon, Somalia, Pakistan, and at least one major country in the Persian Gulf — jihadist Muslim fundamentalists will become the main agenda-setters, emerging from the shadows to dictate the tempo of events, war, and peace.The flow of refugees from Iraq, which now stands at 2 million, will double.In America, a Democratic-controlled Congress will turn the Iraqi mess into a full-blown tragedy by opposing any proposals advanced by the Bush administration short of a total and immediate withdrawal of American troops. The American population will progress toward a total rejection of further overseas involvements.Somalia, which has disintegrated into a huge colony for international jihadist Muslim fundamentalists, will continue its descent into bloody chaos, drawing the Horn of Africa down with it.The presence of American military personnel already involved in Somalia, as well as the CIA and other semi-military American outfits, will increase with more advisers. The flow of weapons to Christian Ethiopia will explode, as will Western satellite and surveillance outposts there. With the Indian Ocean thus wide open, the U.S. Navy and NATO will have to double their presence to block incoming mayhem from the sea.In Israel — which in the summer of 2006 painfully discovered the limits of its military prowess against Hezbollah’s guerrilla-style warfare in Lebanon — politicians and the military will find that their enemies have been further emboldened.Hamas and Hezbollah rockets aimed inland from Gaza and from Lebanon will test Israel again. Prime Minister Olmert’s novice government once more will be pushed to the edge. The government is widely expected to remain in place, but its ability to develop effective responses will be as incomplete and as incompetent in 2007 as it has showed itself to be this year.More important, Mr. Olmert and his defense minister — as well as Israel’s entire opposition — will continue to exhibit a shocking lack of vision, failing to put forward a strategy to deal with the tide of Islamic fundamentalists and the consequences of Egypt’s failed government. The total collapse of the Palestinian Authority will increase the internal challenge for Israel.On the macroeconomic front, the price of oil will continue its breakdown, as more alternative sources, from coal to oil sands to ethanol, surge onto the world markets.The role of Russia as the world’s major new supplier of “conventional energy”— now bigger than that of Saudi Arabia — will grow remarkably. Russia is already Europe’s main supplier of natural gas, and it is moving to become a major supplier of oil and gas to Asia, as well. Canada, with its endless reserves of oil sands, will join Russia as a major new energy power. The strategic consequences of these two countries’ advances for American influence have yet to be calculated by think tanks, NATO, and the OECD. Happy New Year.

In 2007, Expect Palestinian Arab Factions To Wage War

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