The question on 10 million Belarusian minds is simple: Will the former Soviet republic follow the Ukrainian example? Will Belarus join its neighbors – Poland, the Baltic states, and now Ukraine – by at last embracing democracy?

For that to happen, people power will have to force President Lukashenko to relinquish office first. That will take courage. He has warned that those who attempt to overthrow him will be treated as “terrorists” and will face the death penalty.

Mr. Lukashenko came to power in 1994, three years after the collapse of the Soviet Union thrust independence on this downtrodden rust belt of a country. He has ruled ever since. To stay in power, he resurrected the communist system in all but name, from eight-hour televised speeches at party congresses to the ubiquitous presence of the secret police, still known as the KGB. The Kremlin regards him as its most obedient ally. The White House calls him a dictator.

Belarus, then, is now the stage for a contest between two contrasting cultures. To the east: state control over the political, legal, and economic system, with the public sphere dominated by Slavophile nationalism and nostalgia for the Soviet era. To the west: an open society, with democracy, the rule of law, and free market capitalism. It is a contest from which only one side can emerge the victor, a duel to the death – perhaps literally.

The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, treats Belarus as a satellite. He has dangled the prospect of reunification before Belarusians, sweetened by annual subsidies totaling $5 billion. Like the rest of Russia’s client states, Belarus is kept in line by the carrot of cheap energy and the stick of economic blackmail.

It usually works. Two years ago, however, Mr. Putin failed to intimidate the Ukrainians. Even the dirtiest of dirty tricks, including poisoning the then opposition leader, Viktor Yushchenko, failed to persuade the electorate to vote for Mr. Putin’s man, Viktor Yanukovych.

Ever since Mr. Yushchenko became president, relations between Ukraine the Kremlin have been about as cordial as a frozen chicken Kiev. Mr. Putin has tried turning off the gas supplies to bring Mr. Yushchenko to heel, but that alarmed the Western Europeans so much that he had to back down. The Russian president does not relish the prospect of another troublesome customer even closer to home in Minsk.

It does look as if history is on the side of the opposition in Belarus. One must not, though, underestimate the dangers that face protesters. The threat of prison, beatings and worse hangs over them, and the ravaged visage of Mr. Yushchenko reminds them of the cruelty of which the KGB is capable. Nobody in Belarus knows whether the authorities have the stomach to turn Oktyabrskaya Square into another Tiananmen.

Mr. Lukashenko has two trump cards. The first is apathy. So far there has been little sign of the groundswell of popular discontent that overthrew previous communist and post-communist regimes. Belarusians do not have to risk their lives to change their regime: They can simply emigrate instead. The vast labor market on their doorstep, the European Union, acts as a safety valve, siphoning off the young people who might have become political activists. Fear of change is still palpable in the rural hinterlands.

The other factor that might help the president is the old ally that defeated Napoleon and Hitler: General Winter. The timing of this trial of strength – mid-March is still bitterly cold in Minsk – does not favor the opposition.

Despite these caveats, rigged elections no longer go unpunished in Europe. That Mr. Lukashenko is no longer a legitimate head of state is now plain for the whole world to see. Even the usually cautious European Union is already talking of sanctions, while the White House has been even more forthright: “The United States does not accept the results of the election,” its spokesman, Scott McClellan, said.

One way or another, the endgame has almost certainly begun for the Lukashenko regime. His people, who desperately need Western investment, will not thank him for giving Belarus a name as an “outpost of tyranny,” as the Bush administration calls it. He may cling to power, but he will rightly be blamed for his country’s diplomatic and economic isolation.

If Mr. Lukashenko survives, he has little choice but to surrender what is left of his people’s independence. The prospect of Mr. Putin’s bear hug is already mobilizing opposition. Sooner rather than later, the old guard in Belarus – the name means “White Russia” – will be forced to hoist the white flag.