With the people of the world celebrating U.N. Day this Wednesday (they will, I swear), those who believe in diplomacy and protracted negotiations as a way to deal with the planet’s biggest threats are retreating after suffering one of their worst weeks in recent memory.

Iran’s mullahs, it turns out, are not really interested in diplomatic talks about uranium enrichment. North Korea’s leaders have shown some willingness to discuss nuclear proliferation, but their promises appear increasingly suspect. Some Palestinian Arab politicians would love nothing more than to change their people’s role as a symbol of Arab and Islamic anger at the West. However, yesterday’s reports of a recent attempt on Prime Minister Olmert’s life suggest that their ability to deliver is doubtful.

A large question mark looms over the diplomatic successes of Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill, who is negotiating North Korea’s denuclearization, as evidence mounts that the September 6 Israeli incursion into Syria was directed at a nascent nuclear site being built with Pyongyang’s assistance. Does it really matter that North Korea is promising to dismantle its nuclear facilities at Yongbyon if at the same time it sells its most sensitive expertise and material to one of the most dangerous players in the world’s most volatile region? A similar question mark should always surround the wisdom of negotiating with the Iranians over their country’s nuclear program. The resignation (which some say was forced) of the veteran Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani indicates that the real powers in Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Ahmadinejad, are fed up with even the façade of negotiations. They seem to have called the bluff of those who insist on exhausting all diplomatic avenues before moving on to other solutions.

Israelis, as well as many Palestinian Arabs, are increasingly skeptical that a diplomatic gathering next month in Annapolis, Md., will be anything more than what its organizer, Secretary of State Rice, is saying it should not be: a photo opportunity. The sensational news yesterday of a plot against Mr. Olmert hurt politicians in the Fatah Party who say they trust American-led diplomacy to bring to an end to the century-long war with Israel. Israelis are wondering whether President Abbas and Prime Minister Fayyed even represent anyone in the West Bank, let alone Gaza.

The head of Israel’s internal security arm, Yuval Diskin, said that over the summer he passed intelligence reports to the security forces in Ramallah that said several West Bank members of an armed militia associated with Fatah, al-Aqsa Brigades, were planning an attack on a convoy carrying Mr. Olmert to Jericho for a meeting with Mr. Abbas. Palestinian Arab officials yesterday released conflicting statements; some said the suspects in the plot were arrested, others said they were released, and some said they were nothing but a figment of Israel’s imagination.

An Israeli government official involved in the preparations for the November gathering in Annapolis told me that the incident strengthens Israel’s argument that negotiations over the most important issues can start only when Mr. Abbas makes a genuine attempt, with some success, at fighting the terrorists. The majority of Israelis are not convinced that most Palestinian Arabs are interested in ending terrorism, and they believe that this dispute, while important, presents no imminent mortal danger to them.

Iran’s race to become a nuclear power does.

Even if the mullahs do not possess nuclear weapons but are believed to have them, the entire regional strategic balance will be upset, strengthening the forces that think Middle Eastern maps are no place for a Jewish state.

And so, while Ms. Rice has shuttled between Israeli and Palestinian Arab negotiators, Mr. Olmert paid a visit to President Putin in Moscow last week and will meet with President Sarkozy of France today. While he has given no details about the substance of those talks, Mr. Olmert has told the press the topic is Iran. President Bush, meanwhile, sat behind closed doors with Defense Minister Ehud Barak last week for an hour-long impromptu meeting. No details were made available.

Mr. Bush’s comments linking Iran’s nuclear ambitions to a possible World War III have been analyzed to death for days. Mr. Larijani’s ouster shows that Iran will not duplicate the North Korean charade of diplomatic negotiations. And so the doomsday clock is ticking.

As Ms. Rice prepares a photo-op of a meeting that at best will yield symbolic success, Mr. Bush has to decide on real steps to face real threats.

While diplomatic negotiations have their place, North Korea and Iran are not it.

bavni@nysun.com