Iraqi members of Parliament have passed a law enabling the country to be split into semiautonomous regions, despite warnings that it could mean the end of Iraq as a sovereign state.

The federalism bill, introduced last month by a Shiite party, passed the 275-member parliament by 141 to 0. Its opponents had boycotted the vote in a failed attempt to prevent enough MPs being present to reach the required 50% quorum.

The new law comes at a time when, as The New York Sun recently reported, a commission led by an elder statesman is preparing to tell President Bush to abandon his drive to establish a democratic state across Iraq.

According to a leaked report published yesterday, the Iraq Study Group — headed by the secretary of state under President George H.W. Bush, James Baker, and including senior figures from both main parties — is boiling down America’s choices in Iraq either to creating a fortress Baghdad or gradually withdrawing troops and focusing on containing terrorist fall-out from a civil war.

Mr. Baker has promised to provide solutions that fall between the “cut and run” and “stay the course” options dominating Washington’s debate on Iraq. As the Sun reported, one suggestion, called “Stability First,” is for American forces to concentrate solely on establishing security in Baghdad. The report accepts this would mean giving up efforts to promote democratic government across the country.

However, the passage in Iraq of the new federalism law indicates that events may be moving too swiftly for new initiatives from Washington to dictate the country’s future course. Provinces will be permitted to band together to form self-ruling regions if a third of provincial legislators request it and the move is backed by local referendums. As a result, a Shiite state is likely to emerge in the south, similar to the autonomous region the Kurds have established in the north. It will be able to levy taxes and post armed guards on its borders.

The law has been bitterly opposed by Sunni Arabs, who dominated Iraq under Saddam Hussein but form only a fifth of the population. They fear that the Shiite south will become a satellite of Iran, and that they will be left with a central area with little oil.

In an attempted compromise move, the Bill included a clause preventing the formation of any federal regions for 18 months. But Sunni MPs still tried to prevent its passage by boycotting the session. They were joined by supporters of Moqtada al-Sadr, the nationalist Shiite cleric who opposes federalism, saying it risks causing the country’s break-up.

The leader of the largest Sunni party, Adnan al-Dulaimi, warned after the vote that the law could provoke even worse sectarian violence. “This is the beginning of the plan to divide Iraq,” he said.

A Sadr supporter, Nasaar al-Rubaie, said: “The present conditions are not conducive to establishing regions because we lack a strong central government that can overrule the regions.The central authority is actually weakening, instead of being solidified and strengthened.”

A federalized Iraq was one of the key principles accepted in the country’s constitution written last year, but the new law is the first time a legal mechanism has been established. Supporters argue that it will prevent Iraq’s regions from being dominated by a central dictator.