Following Pope John Paul II’s visits to the Middle East in 2000 and 2001, some prominent Muslim leaders openly discussed the future dominance of Islam in Europe, including a conquest of the Vatican.

As the identity of the next pope is decided, one of the pressing issues awaiting him is the growth of the Muslim community in Europe, part of which has Islamist inclinations. As the New York Times reported yesterday, one of the most important issues the next pope will face is the “increasing secularism in Europe, contrasting with the religious revival in the Islamic world … and the rising number of Muslim immigrants in Europe.”

Sheik Muhammad bin Abd Al-Rahman Al-‘Arifi, a Saudi and imam of the mosque of King Fahd Defense Academy, predicted Muslims would gain control of the Vatican. Citing a Hadith posted on the Kalemat Web site in 2002, he said, “We will control the land of the Vatican; we will control Rome and introduce Islam in it. Yes, the Christians, who carve crosses on the breasts of the Muslims … will yet pay us the Jiziya [poll tax paid by non-Muslims under Muslim rule], in humiliation, or they will convert to Islam …”

Sheik Yousef Al-Qaradhawi, a spiritual leader of the Muslim Brotherhood who is head of the European Council for Fatwa and Research and the founder of the International Council of Muslim Scholars, posted a fatwa, or decree, on the Web site www.islamonline.net, in 2002 about the “signs of the victory of Islam” in Europe. Also, citing a well-known Hadith, Al-Qaradhawi wrote, “The Prophet Muhammad was asked: ‘What city will be conquered first, Constantinople or Romiyya?’ He answered: ‘The city of Hirqil [i.e. the Byzantine emperor Heraclius] will be conquered first’ – that is, Constantinople … Romiyya is the city called today ‘Rome,’ the capital of Italy … and we hope and believe [that it too will be conquered].”

Al-Qaradhawi elaborated on what this means today. “This means that Islam will return to Europe as a conqueror and victor, after being expelled from it twice … I maintain that the conquest this time will not be by the sword but by preaching and ideology …”

On his weekly religious program on Al-Jazeera in 1999, Al-Qaradhawi made similar statements: “All right, Constantinople was conquered, and the second part of the prophecy remains, that is, the conquest of Rome. This means that Islam will return to Europe. Islam entered Europe twice and left it … Perhaps the next conquest … will be by means of preaching and ideology. The conquest need not necessarily be by the sword … Perhaps we will conquer these lands without armies. We want an army of preachers and teachers who will present Islam in all languages.”

The following year, Al-Qaradhawi elaborated on the importance of European Da’wa (spreading Islam to non-Muslims): “Europe will see that it suffers from materialistic culture, and will seek an alternative … Islam will return to Europe and the Europeans will convert to Islam.”

Other Muslim figures who have discussed an Islamic conquest of the Vatican include the Palestinian Authority’s Deputy Minister of Awqaf, Sheik Yousef Juma’a Salameh; Saudi Sheik Naser Muhammad Al-Naser, and Sudanese Sheik Muhammad Abd Al-Karim.

Meanwhile, the population of Muslims in Europe has grown exponentially and as Al-Qaradhawi predicted, that has happened not by the sword but through preaching. In May 2000, there were reportedly about 1 million Muslims in Italy, a number that doubled in just 10 years, and more than 10,000 Italian-born converts, with the number of mosques and Islamic cultural centers having gone from 12 to 400 in the past 16 years.

Since September 11, 2001, European governments have started to monitor imams. After last year’s Madrid bombings, the Spanish government proposed monitoring the sermons of imams. Following the murder of a filmmaker, Theo Van Gogh, the Netherlands started a program to train imams and no longer allows other imams from outside its borders. In France, where 10% of the population is Muslim, the government has started to expel Islamist imams. In Britain, Islamist imams are now on trial for connections to Al Qaeda. Italy has also expelled imams for pledging allegiance to Osama bin Laden.

The issue of Islam in Europe can certainly be expected to be high on the agenda of the next pope.

Mr. Stalinsky is executive director of the Middle East Media Research Institute.